From IRI/Columbia U.:
2016 May Quick Look
Published: May 19, 2016
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
During mid-May 2016 the positive tropical Pacific SST anomaly was quickly weakening, now indicating only a weak El Niño. The atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, but at much reduced strength. This includes only a mildly weakened Walker circulation and excess rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, failing to extend eastward as it did in previous months.
Most ENSO prediction models indicate a return to neutral by the end of May, with likely development of La Niña (of unknown strength) by fall.
*"Conditions" become a full blown La Niña after three 3-month rolling periods (five months total) below the threshold.
