Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Risk: Tornado Count Remains Below Average, Wildfire Burned Acreage Jumps

Blame the Alaska fires--which pretty much have to die out on their own--for the latter.
First up, a couple tornado charts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center:
The current tornado count is only in the 23rd percentile:

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph-big.png
The last few years have seen record low counts:
U.S. Annual Tornado Trends
Plot of the annual running total of U.S. tornadoes. (Click on image for a full resolution version.)
 
Forest fires on the other hand....As with tornadoes, acreage burned had been bouncing near record lows but then... Each red line is a named fire:
http://blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/Alaska-fire-map.jpg

The June 30 Weather.com story is headlined "Alaska Wildfires in June 2015 Have Surpassed June 2004, Which Was a Record Wildfire Year".

Resulting in...
From the National Interagency Wildfire Center:

Year-to-date statistics
2015 (1/1/15 - 7/14/15) Fires: 31,974 Acres: 5,196,033
2014 (1/1/14 - 7/14/14) Fires: 29,256 Acres: 1,042,816
2013 (1/1/13 - 7/14/13) Fires: 24,719 Acres: 2,001,596
2012 (1/1/12 - 7/14/12) Fires: 32,238 Acres: 3,554,411
2011 (1/1/11 - 7/14/11) Fires: 40,051 Acres: 5,812,728
2010 (1/1/10 - 7/14/10) Fires: 33,496 Acres: 1,679,327
2009 (1/1/09 - 7/14/09) Fires: 51,584 Acres: 2,425,934
2008 (1/1/08 - 7/14/08) Fires: 48,059 Acres: 3,173,833
2007 (1/1/07 - 7/14/07) Fires: 51,334 Acres: 2,902,381
2006 (1/1/06 - 7/14/06) Fires: 63,322 Acres: 4,126,245
2005 (1/1/05 - 7/14/05) Fires: 33,161 Aces: 3,156,423
Annual average prior 10 years
2005-2014 Fires: 40,722 Acres: 2,987,569

...MUCH MORE

At the moment there are still 22 fires burning in Alaska that have burned a total 1,526,830 acres.