Friday, July 10, 2015

Checking In On The Gigafactory: Pacific Crest's Downgrade Of Tesla (TSLA)

The stock looks to open higher than yesterday's $257.92 finish.
From Next Big Future:

Tesla Gigafactory on track to begin battery production by the end of 2015 and the Tesla 3 low price coming from batteries and more robotic production 
Tesla Motors is on track for initial lithium-ion battery production at the Gigafactory by the end of 2015 and significant production for existing Tesla models in 2016. Of course, Tesla intends to get production up to 500,000 battery packs a year by 2020, but it is going to complete the Gigafactory and ramp up production in phases.
Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson toured Tesla’s Fremont factory, and he estimated that the Tesla Model X production line has 3–4 times more robots than the Model S production line.

Tesla is relying on the economies of scale of the huge factory to allow it to sell the Model 3 at a base price of $35,000 before incentives.

GM is stepping up the challenge from Tesla and is reported to be getting to 200 mile range for its next Chevy Bolt electric car.
Author Randy Carlson predicts three versions of the Model 3.

* 344: Entry-level, single-motor, rear-wheel drive version, with a base price of $35,000, EPA range of 220 miles from a 44-kWh battery, and 0-to-60-mph time of 5.6 seconds

* 366D: Dual-motor AWD standard version with an EPA range of 320 miles from a 66-kWh battery. 0-60 time 4.7 seconds, price $44,000

* P366D: 340-hp performance version with dual motors, AWD, a 300-mile EPA range, and 0-to-60 time of 3.1 seconds; priced with leather and a luxury interior at $60,000

It is expected that the model 3 will have the outside volume similar to the BMW 3 series but because of the smaller electric motor and electric car advantages will have more passenger and cargo space inside....MORE
And from Bloomberg, July 8: 
Tesla Declines for Second Day After Pacific Crest Downgrade
Tesla Motors Inc. fell for a second day after another analyst downgraded the stock, saying the “bar looks high” for the electric-car maker in this year’s final six months.
The shares’ valuation has climbed to match the company’s strengths in automaking and battery technology, Brad Erickson, a Pacific Crest Securities analyst, said in a report dated July 7. He lowered the rating to sector weight from overweight. The stock’s fair value based on the firm’s 2020 earnings estimate is $293, he said.
“Tesla remains one of the most innovative stories in all of automotive,” Erickson said. “Upside potential remains, as evidenced by our fair-value estimate, but recent appreciation has created a more balanced risk/reward profile.”...MORE