From the WSJ's 5 Things blog:
The Labor Department’s March
jobs report on Friday is expected to show a pick-up in hiring, a welcome
sign following a mid-winter lull. Economists surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal forecast the economy added 200,000 jobs last month, up
from 175,000 in February and much better than December’s meager gain of
84,000. The unemployment rate is expected to return to 6.6% after
ticking up to 6.7% in February. Other recent indicators suggest the
economy is thawing, though consumers and businesses remain cautious.
Beyond headline numbers, here are five things to watch on Friday.
Total private employment
reached 115,848,000 in February, close to the seasonally adjusted record
of 115,977,000 from January 2008. If the private sector added more than
129,000 payroll jobs in March, the U.S. will be back to its peak level
of private-sector employment. Of course, a lot has changed since the
prior peak. State local and federal governments have shed more than half
a million jobs, leaving total employment still shy of its all-time
high. The population is bigger: The civilian labor force has expanded by
1.6 million since then. And the mix of private-sector jobs has changed.
For example, more people work in temp and health care jobs, while fewer
are in construction and manufacturing.
It’s not clear if bad weather
put a chill on hiring in the latest jobs report. In February, it kept
people from getting to work, at least for a few days. The result: The
average workweek slipped by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in February, the
lowest level since January 2011. Fewer hours mean less take-home pay for
many, translating into weaker consumer demand and slower economic
growth. The wintry mix continued to hit parts of the country in March
but the effect shouldn’t be as bad as earlier in the winter. “Even a
partial reversal of the weather distortion should generate a rebound in
average weekly hours worked, which have slumped from 34.5 last
November,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics....
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