Tuesday, April 22, 2014

UBS: Gold Miners Aren't Minting It (GDX; GDXJ)

We're pretty negative on the group and probably will be until we see some juniors going bankrupt.
Front futures $1283.50 down $5.10,  Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF $23.73 Up 0.22.
From MoneyBeat:
Much has been said, little nice, about “cash costs”–the flimsy way gold miners tend to report how much it takes to dig an ounce of the precious metal out of the ground.

One reason for the skepticism about the much-maligned indicator is that it excludes everything from exploration and capital expenditure costs to overhead and other expenses that make up the day-to-day costs of running a mining business.

In a note to clients Monday, UBS estimated that industrywide cash costs for gold averaged $728 per ounce in the fourth quarter. With gold prices averaging about $1,271 per ounce in the quarter, that implies a margin of $543. Not bad, right?

But when UBS digs deeper, it finds the all-in cost was a much loftier $1,205, resulting in a much slimmer margin of $67 per ounce....MORE
Previously:
Goldman Sachs on Australian Gold Miner Cash Costs
"Cash Costs A Better Indicator Of Pressure On Gold Mining: Citi" (GDX; GDXJ)
Gold Miners: A Fool And His Money (GDX; GDXJ; GLD)
Barclays: "If Gold Was "Just A Commodity" What Would Be Its Support Price?" (ABX; G; GLD; NEM)
UPDATED--Gold is Going Much Lower
Gold Collapses, Approaching Gold Miners Cost Threshold (Infographic)

Here's the 6 month chart of the ETF vs. the S&P:
Chart forMarket Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)