Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Lines On Charts: "Dow 9,000?"

I know. Over the years I've complained about question marks in the headline. They're weak, wishy-washy, blah blah, say what you mean, blah, don't hedge...
It's not my headline. From Advisor Perspective come a couple interesting charts:
Currently the Dow and S&P 500 are very near multi-decade rising channel lines and look to be forming bearish rising wedges.

Forecasting and chart analysis is an art, not a science. Even though rising wedges break to the downside roughly two-thirds of the time, I, nor anyone knows for sure, which direction investors will break these wedge patterns or how far it could fall! Keep in mind this pattern breaks to the upside one-third of the time too!
In my humble opinion the key to this situation is this: It's not the odds of the market breaking to the downside that is important. It's the impact to portfolios if it does!...MORE