Thursday, July 19, 2012

Morgan Stanley- Corn futures may hit $10 a bushel

The front futures are up 9 3/4 cents at $7.935. Here's the chart from FinViz:

record corn prices

That $8.102 print is the all time record.
From Agrimoney:
Corn futures, which topped $8 a bushel for the first time, could yet spike above $10 a bushel, Morgan Stanley said, lifted by a "battle royal" between livestock producers for supplies.
The investment bank hiked average 2012-13 forecasts for both Chicago corn futures, to $7.85 a bushel, and soybean futures, to $16.00 a bushel, citing the "need to ration demand" after heat and drought cut estimates for US yields.
However, given the "inelastic nature of demand" for the crops - meaning higher values may only choke off a small amount of consumption - and the prospect of "record tight" inventories prices could trade "significantly higher for short periods of time".
"Indeed, we anticipate periods of time in the coming months where corn trades in double-digits," Morgan Stanley said.
That forecast implies considerable further upside for futures.
Chicago's September contract on Thursday rose nearly 2% to a record, for a spot contract, of 8.11 ½ a bushel, while the new crop December lot reached a contact high of $7.98 a bushel. 
'Need for higher prices' 
Morgan Stanley based its forecasts on assumptions of the US corn yield falling to a 10-year low of 135 bushels per acre this year, below the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 146.0 bushels per acre.
In production terms, the bank pegged the US corn harvest at 11.9bn bushels, nearly 1.1bn bushels below the current USDA estimate.
"The market is quickly coming to appreciate the need for higher prices to protect already-depleted corn and soybean inventories, in light of disappointing production globally — and especially in the US," the bank said....MORE