Not such good news for folks who want to see gas back under $2.00.
From the Oil&Gas Reporter (May, 2011) via Schlumberger:
Study Assesses Shale Decline Rates
Experts examined shale gas decline curves in the Barnett, Fayetteville, Woodford, and Haynesville plays to predict future production for this increasingly significant fraction of the North American gas market. The data available tends to be difficult to resolve because each operator calculates enhanced ultimate recovery by different business rules. The authors have provided a common denominator with break-even economics using a P50 probability case. In addition to examining decline curves to identify trends in general, the article also reveals correlations between production improvements and the use of new technology or tools.5 page PDF
One quick note: The interplay between production rates and expected ultimate recovery (EUR) is a science unto itself. Combined with the fact that so many of the wells used for analysis are less than three years old that the lines on the charts (the hyperbolic curves) are only a rough estimate.
