Friday, July 20, 2012

Equities: Why Aren't the Financials Leading (XLF; SPY)

Although the S&P was up on Wednesday and Thursday the S&P Financials ETF was down. A two day divergence isn't the end of the world but is something to store in the reptile brain as we maybe move toward the edge of the dance floor.
Just in case.
XLF down 1.16% at $14.43, SPY down .70% at $136.78.
From Piker Trader:
XLF like SPY and the markets has formed a triangle via the downtrend from April the uptrend since June.  Now XLF is sitting square in the apex of this triangle.  It has to break down one way or the other.  It has been odd that the market has been rallying and yet XLF and other financials have not.  We looked at the potential for the breakout in XLF on Sunday but the resistance levels appear to be too much.

Yesterday resistance levels stopped XLF from breaking out pushing XLF lower at 14.75.  While it also tried to breaking down put support levels held at 14.54.  Short-term any break of these two levels would signal a break of the triangle for a break upwards 14.75 and a breakdown 14.54.  Confirmation of the trend change would come for breaks of longer-term support and resistance. Longer term XLF gets into bearish territory if it breaks below 14.46, once this level breaks 14.26 will come into play, XLF is bullish with a break above 14.86....MORE