Monday, October 10, 2011

Lower Quality Stocks Losing Steam (MCP; FSLR)

MCP up 1.59% to $35.85.
FSLR down 1.07% to $59.10.
The DJIA and S&P are up 2.44% and 2.83% respectively.

Two of the issues we've found to have some predictive ability are former high-flyers First Solar and Molycorp.
FSLR had a 10% pop last week and has given it back. The stock is usually among the top three most shorted S&P 500 components and as such is sensitive to the short-covering impulse.

Molycorp is a bit different, there's value in that mine, the problem is no one is sure just how much.
MCP alerted us to the change in mood on Oct. 4.
Good grief, six day's ago. It feels like a lifetime.
Here's the post:
Molycorp Lands on Support, Reverses and What it Says About the Market (MCP)
We use stocks like MCP as a sentiment indicator. These are lower quality issues that the old-time traders would keep on the top of their box of securities, the first to go when the trader was nervous.
It works in reverse but not as predictably, if the timeframe for a decline is compressed, the trader hasn't forgotten the infatuation they had when the stock was a high-flyer and they go back to it.

On the other hand, if the decline drags out the trader won't touch anything less than gilt-edged paper, forsaking all others . (and maybe cutting deals with God,"if he can just get back to even")

On September 27 we said:

...Here's the 12-month chart, $30 looks like decent support:

The stock traded as low as $31.41 yesterday before closing at $34.56.
In late premarket action the stock is up $2.39 at $36.95
Yesterday the stock closed at $30.12 after trading as low as $30.03.
With the broader market at it's lows for the day (DJIA down 233, S&P down 21) we just might have a hell of a short covering rally coming up for the big dogs....