Monday, October 3, 2011

Just a Reminder on Bank of America: Mind the Gap (BAC)

Stocks are smarter than fund managers.
And investors, brokers, analysts, traders etc.
With the stock at $5.68, down 44 cents (7.27%) I'm reposting  from August 4:

Remember "Is Bank of America At Risk of a Death Spiral? (BAC)"
For cryin' out loud it was only July 21st when we posted it.
Here's the link.

I bring this up because, with the stock down 7.4% to $8.88 today I was asked "How far can it drop?"
Houston we may have a problem.
Here's the chart for March 2009:

If I may direct your attention attention to the bars for the 9th and 10th there is a gap where the stock closed at $3.75 on the 9th and opened at $4.35 on the 10th.
That gap has never been filled.

I had sworn to myself that I would not ever speak of this, it sounded outlandish even to me.
Not all gaps fill. As I said in October '09's "Equities: Well We Filled the Gap in the S&P 500 Chart"
It is almost uncanny how many times a stock or index makes a gap up and then comes back to fill the gap before resuming the move. In this case S&P 1073 or thereabouts.

On the other hand, I knew an old-timer who spent much of the eighties waiting for the Dow Joneses to fill a gap in the high 500's that dated from 1974....
And it may not fill on this go-around.
We are expecting the ultimate market bottom in 3-4 years, it may be the next big bear before BAC see's $4.
But now you know.