Thursday, October 6, 2011

"Can the S&P500 Clear the Red Zone?" (SPY)

S&P futures are up 12.10 at 1147.10.
From Global Macro Monitor (Oct. 5):
Some rally!  Almost 70 S&P points or 6.4 percent from yesterday’s low to today’s close.  Makes us feel we’re back in the 1990′s trading Brazilian and Russian defaulted sovereign debt.   So where to now?
The next 60 points are going to be much harder as the S&P500 has to clear the “red zone” — 1175 to 1195 — which will be full of 300 pound Bear linebackers, who can bench press  400 lbs..  Yikes!   Halfway into the zone is the 50-day moving average at around 1183, which will also be stiff resistance....MORE
...A smart bull is like Cub fan who never gives up hope, but never bets the ranch.   The bulls lose the ball again at 1101 and the season at 1075.   Enjoy the game!

Meanwhile Slope of Hope draws our attention to the Euro (down .0049 to 1.3299) and the S&P futures contract. Here is his E-mini contract comment:
...Here's the ES chart, not on a daily basis, but on an hourly bar basis. I think the next line in the sand is at about 1150. If you think of the past ten weeks as a range, we are closing in on the midpoint of that range. My belief is that, barring an awe-inspiring news event, the odds are better that we'll continue the downturn to the lower end of the range (and, possibly, finally break it) as opposed to continuing to claw our way higher. The easy money, so to speak, has already been made over the past couple of sessions....MORE

The series of lower highs is so obvious that I'm almost afraid to say this: there's your line in the the sand; No Passarant.