Are we headed for a major correction, or even worse: a resumption of the bear market? What “the best” (former bears) are telling us now… Many investors ask us who were among the “prominent bears” (or at least who went against the crowd as “boom-time skeptics”) before investors suffered the worst market sell off since 1974. The answer is encouraging, because almost all of the market strategists and economists who correctly and repeatedly warned us to sell, or to get to a “maximum defensive position”—have turned bullish—in some cases within weeks of the March bottom. And we have the proof, because they all appeared on MoneyShow.com and at MoneyShow events. Here are the "Paul Reveres" who rode for months and years warning of the bubble in formation—some were early of the top by more than a year. The exact timing of their buy signals may have pre-dated their MoneyShow.com videos or MoneyShow event presentations. An important advantage of the live events and MoneyShow.com videos: experts are given enough time with us—to make unusually detailed and candid recommendations. Bernie Schaffer: Bearish as a technical trend follower long before the top, he warned us of the folly of too much derivatives use by hedge funds pilling into “crowded trades”, that would “under perform” at the worst time. Bernie told us we had “hit a bottom” (even if it’s a massive bear market rally, it should be played on the long side) at The Las Vegas MoneyShow in May of 2009. The 40-week moving average was Bernie’s key level, 943 on the S&P 500. Since we have broken up through that level, Bernie remains bullish, citing positive sentiment: “There are four distinct backdrops or themes that accompany the ascendancy of the market from a bear-market bottom to a bull-market top.” By Bernie’s analysis, the recent cluster of media skepticism can only be characterized as “disbelief.” Bernie concludes: ”Isn’t this the wall of worry that suggests further upside?”
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Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Former Bears' Take on the Market’s Future
From MoneyShow: