From Notable Calls:
J.P. Morgan is out with another major call on Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) raising their price target to $42 from $28 following earnings announcement out last night.Previous posts on one of our favorite billionaires:
AGO reported op EPS in line with the pre-announced $0.45 per share. Included in its Q was a premium amortization schedule that was well above what JPM had previously modeled. In short, they were not properly accounting for the way FSA's premium revenue is recognized going forward as AGO purchased the company at a large discount to book. As such they are raising their estimates substantially and pushing their price target up to $42, using the same 7x multiple to their new 2011 estimate. With shares trading at half firm's target, they would be aggressive buyers....MORE...Notablecalls: So, today is 'Make Wilbur Ross Happy' day. The legendary distressed business investor owns around 16 million shares of AGO with an average price of ~$15-20 per share. He started buying AGO in February 2008 and has steadily increased his take since then.
I suspect AGO will fly high today following the results and the HUGE call from J.P. Morgan:
- I'm sure many of you saw how AGO reacted to the less ominous Moody's cut and J.P. Morgan comments last Friday. The stock shot up 4 pts from open and didn't give back much during the day. There was some serious buying going on.
Nov. 2, 2009
Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash (AGO)
Mr. Ross is one of the very, very sharpest operators in the market. Distressed debt and related areas are so fraught with ways to lose money that anyone who can even survive is smarter than the average bear. To make the kind of money in the field that Mr. Ross has made is proof positive of a deep understanding of the biz. We titled one of our posts "A Guy Who Might be Smarter then Warren Buffett Talks About the Financial Mess (AGO; BRK.A)"....
Oil: the Market is the ManipulationHere are some of our earlier posts on Mr.Ross:
Bailout will encourage stupid acts by big firms, says Wilbur Ross (AGO)
A Guy Who Might be Smarter then Warren Buffett Talks About the Financial Mess (AGO; BRK.A)
Don't Bet Against Wilbur Ross- Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Wilbur Ross: "1000 Banks to Fail". Nine down, 991 to go. What an Opportunity
Wilbur Ross: Run-Up in Oil Prices Is a Bubble
Seeing Oil Bubble, a Contrarian Bets on an Indian Airline
Follow-up: The bond insurers, a $200bn problem and Wilbur Ross (ABK; MBI; BRK.A)
FT Alphaville has a different take on the hot new boy-band:We apologize for the "Wilbur and The Monolines" bit.
Wilbur & The Monolines....