Showing posts sorted by date for query nitrogen. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query nitrogen. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Friday, October 16, 2026

"Canada’s top growing companies by three-year revenue growth"

From the Globe and Mail's Report on Business magazine, September 25:

Ranking Canada’s Top Growing Companies of 2026
The 375 companies on the ranking are closing the innovation gap and finding ways to grow through the ups and downs of a turbulent economy and geopolitical landscape 

For the past eight years, Report on Business magazine has produced a ranking of Canada’s Top Growing Companies, measuring businesses on three-year revenue growth. These companies represent the entire spectrum of the Canadian economy, from mining to tech to retail and more. One thing this cohort of 375 companies has in common, though, is tenacity—they continue to show outstanding growth despite operating through an escalating trade war and economic uncertainty. Read on to see who made the list.

1. Kathairos Solutions Inc.

Calgary Private Company Energy & Natural Resources

Uses nitrogen to eliminate methane venting from oil and gas operations

16,379% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $25M - $50M
Employees: 80
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 1
 
2. 247 Fulfillment
Concord, Ont. Private Company Transportation & Logistics

Amazon level logistics for e-commerce brands

6,035% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $10M - $25M
Employees: 50
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 1
 
3. Spellbook
Toronto Private Company Technology and Telecom

AI infrastructure for contracts

5,826% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $10M - $25M
Employees: 185
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 1
 
4. UPGUYS Health Inc.
Burnaby, B.C. Private Company Health care & Wellness

Men’s longevity and hormone optimization platform with pharmacy services

5,308% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $25M - $50M
Employees: 65
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 2
5. Crescendo Sales Inc.
Kitchener, Ont. Private Company Consumer

Imports, launches, and scales consumer brands on Amazon

4,477% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $5M - $10M
Employees: 9
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 1
 
6. AnyCard
Oakville, Ont. Private Company Technology and Telecom

Gift card solutions for merchants, business buyers, rewards providers

4,474% 3-year revenue growth % ⬆
2025 Revenue: $10M - $25M
Employees: 20
Years on ranking (incl. 2026): 1

....MUCH MORE 

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

BondVigilantes: "Of Anchovies and Blueberries – why El Niño matters"

From M&G's Bond Vigilantes, August 17:

Why aren’t we talking more about El Niño?

After an exceptionally hot, dry summer in Western Europe and elsewhere, climate discussions proliferate. But neither mainstream media nor markets seem to be seriously discussing the risks and opportunities presented by what scientists appear to agree will be a “super El Niño”.  

In a world where food supplies have already been curtailed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (especially wheat and sunflower oil), and where next year’s crop yields could be hit by the high price and/or scarcity of fertiliser due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which 30% of global nitrogen and 50% of sulphur traditionally flow – a particularly strong El Niño seems bound to have a substantial impact on the economies of various South Pacific nations, and food-price inflation globally.  

It will also increase the price of logistics. As quoted in the FT on 11th August, raising the cost and decreasing the frequency of transits of the Panama Canal (whose water levels have already dropped dangerously low) will also be inflationary. As food-price inflation has a significant effect on emerging markets, these circumstances should lead to rising rates and currency volatility. We would anticipate plenty of investment opportunities for fixed-income, currency and (agricultural) commodity investors. 

The first point to make is that we are facing – yet again – a climate event of historic proportions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an 81% likelihood of a “very strong El Niño” (see graph), defined as one where the Pacific warms more than 2°C above the seasonal average and the highest classification they use. This event, however, seems set to be particularly dramatic. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicts temperatures rising to 3.5°C above average. Considering that the previous peak in November 2015 came in at +2.6°C, we seem set for a profound climate event that smashes all previous records. 

 

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) July 2026

One of the countries most heavily affected by El Niño is Peru, whose GDP growth can be reduced by over one percentage point by its impact. Extreme weather causes disruption, whether by flooding roads, impacting supply chains or affecting crop yields. Knowing El Niño is coming often deters economic activity and investment as people hunker down for a tough year. But it is quite amazing how the effect of El Niño on even a relatively small country like Peru can have a global impact in certain areas. For instance, Peru is the world’s largest exporter of blueberries (over $2.5bn in 2025), so a substantial reduction in blueberry production will affect the availability and price of this fruit globally. Next, consider the humble anchovy, which is fished for in great numbers off Peru’s shores. In fact, Peru’s anchovy fishery is considered the largest in the world by volume. During El Niño, the warm waters stress the fish and render them infertile, driving them deeper down to find cooler currents. Peru therefore seems likely to miss out on at least one of its two fishing seasons, with obvious implications for the local fishing industry. What is less well known is that Peruvian anchovies are used to produce 20% of the world’s fishmeal, which is fed to farmed fish, other aquaculture and livestock. It therefore seems likely that people across the globe will notice the cost of fish rising in supermarkets next year. 

Those are just a couple of examples of local effects rippling across the world. But of course the warming of the Pacific Ocean will have a tremendous impact on crop production everywhere. The table below shows the scale of what may well hit us next year. To highlight a few stark examples, Australian wheat yields could collapse by up to 60%, global cocoa and coffee output could fall by 15% and we could see 10% declines in Brazilian corn....

 The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as 
well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. 
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

....MUCH MORE 

Earlier today:

El Niño—"ENSO Forecast: August 2026 Quick Look"

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

"Fertilizer prices fall on slow demand, Chinese exports and Iran"

From Nikkei Asia, June 23: 

Industry figures divided on market's future direction 

BANGKOK/SHANGHAI -- Fertilizer prices have fallen sharply since the end of April, providing relief for farmers battered by spikes following the outbreak of the Iran War. However, some industry insiders have warned that the market could remain turbulent for months.

Urea is the most common nitrogen-based fertilizer, one of three key elements for plant growth, along with phosphorus and potassium. Most urea is produced using natural gas, and some 30% to 35% of global exports usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. When the strait closed after the war started on Feb. 28, the spot free-on-board Middle East urea price per metric ton shot up from $492.50 per metric ton to $900 on April 23.

Farmers, particularly in many Asian countries, scaled back their use of fertilizer or held off planting out of fear they would only harvest financial losses due to increased prices for fertilizer, fuel and other inputs and warnings about the looming El Nino weather phenomenon.

But prices then started dropping, reaching prewar levels in the first week of June, before the ceasefire was announced.

Several factors are behind the downtrend, with lower demand, the result of the higher prices, and China's authorization of new exports in late May being the main catalysts, experts told Nikkei Asia. The announced Iran-U.S. ceasefire could provide further downward pressure on prices.

"The primary driver for the recent 'free fall' in the urea prices has been the lack of demand," said Pranshi Goyal, senior urea analyst at commodity consultancy CRU Group. "May is a seasonally slow month. Moreover, poor affordability has deferred stocking up decisions, and buyers [are sitting still] in the hope that a resolution in the Middle East is reached soon.

"In June, price declines have extended further with the return of China, a key exporter, which had restricted its exports since the beginning of the year."

The Chinese government has not publicly announced an easing of export curbs. However, Reuters reported in late May that it had issued fresh export quotas.

Analysts said the apparent move was in response to weaker domestic demand. As of June 10, domestic urea inventories had risen 7.6% from a week earlier to 959,400 tons, according to Chinese data provider OilChem. It attributed the increase to a temporary lull in agricultural fertilizer demand, weak industrial demand and stockpiling by producers expecting export restrictions to be relaxed....

 ...MUCH MORE

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

"Biosphere lands Pentagon funding to build portable “protein from air” bioreactors"

Gimme that nitrogen.

From AgFunderNews, May 5: 

Biosphere—a California-based startup developing UV-sterilized bioreactors it claims can slash biomanufacturing costs—has won a grant from the US Dept of Defense (DoD) totaling $9 million over 3.5 years to fund the development of portable bioreactors producing protein via gas fermentation.

The move reflects a strategic focus on biomanufacturing at the DoD, which is exploring distributed production across multiple scales from skid-sized units to larger facilities for food, materials, and therapeutics in “contested” environments where securing supplies via normal channels is challenging.

This initiative will culminate in a prototype capable of continuous operation with UV sterilization protocols, water and media recycling systems, and downstream processing, says the firm, which was founded in 2022 by materials scientist Brian Heligman PhD and molecular biologist Arye Lipman.

While Biosphere’s core business is providing bioreactor tech to the fermentation industry enabling firms to ditch costly and complex steam-in-place sterilization systems, it has recently acquired IP from a distressed gas fermentation company making “protein from air” that it will deploy in the DoD project, Heligman tells AgFunderNews.

“We made a strategic acquisition that we will be announcing in the near future, but our focus is on making robust hardware systems that can reliably operate in automated ways with streamlined maintenance and operations.”

UV sterilization

For aseptic production biomanufacturing, bioreactors are typically sterilized between batches using capex-intensive steam-in-place sterilization systems characterized by a vast array of pipes and valves, boilers, and a lot of water.

By killing contaminants with UV light instead, firms can reduce capex and maintenance costs, speed up the sterilization process, and develop smaller, more productive bioreactors unconstrained by steam sterilization protocols, says Heligman.

To date, Biosphere has validated the tech at benchtop-scale, advanced pilot scale clean in place systems, and is now working on a 20,000-L demo scale facility, he explains.

Gas fermentation: not for the faint-hearted

The DoD contract around gas fermentation—using gases instead of sugars as feedstocks for microbes—creates room to experiment with more exotic bioreactor designs that would be harder to fund in purely commercial settings, says Heligman.

While gas fermentation technology is best-known for making fuel and chemicals (LanzaTech, Phase Biolabs, and Again), it is also being used by several firms (Calysta, Circe, Solmeyea, Air Protein, Solar Foods, Unibio, Jooules) as a platform for food and feed production. LanzaTech is also moving into food and feed, having honed its tech for ethanol and specialty chemical production.

Using gases instead of sugars to feed microbes can lower input costs and allow for longer campaigns (because there is less risk of contamination), and potentially leverage waste or byproduct gases....

....MUCH MORE 

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Researchers May Put A Big Dent In China's Need To Import Plant Proteins

Dent is a type of field corn. A long way for a not-very-good play on words 

First up, from Xinhua via People's Daily, June 4:

Chinese scientists develop high protein maize in animal feed quest 

Chinese scientists have identified two key genes for high protein content in maize and have managed to develop high protein varieties, offering a promising solution to China's animal feed protein shortage.

Maize is China's largest grain in terms of production volume, however, its protein content is generally low, only about 8 percent, leading to a heavy dependence on imported soybean meal as a protein source for livestock, according to Wu Yongrui, deputy director of the Center for Excellence in Molecular Plant Sciences (CEMPS) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

In 2025, China's soybean imports exceeded 100 million tonnes. Raising maize protein content by just one percentage point would be equivalent to the protein contained in approximately 8 million tonnes of imported soybeans, Wu said.

Therefore, developing high protein maize to replace imported soybean meal in feed is a promising tactic in seeking to address the country's feed protein shortfall. Yet, for a long time, breeding efforts had lacked access to superior high protein genes, Wu noted.

Research has found that wild maize contains protein levels as high as 30 percent, but after over 9,000 years of domestication and modern breeding, most of these genes have been "lost" in contemporary varieties due to the absence of targeted selection for protein content, Wu explained.

In 2022, a research team led by Wu identified the first high protein gene, THP9-T, from wild maize, achieving a preliminary boost in protein content for major domestic maize cultivars. However, further breakthroughs in maize protein content remained a significant challenge.

Through persistent efforts, the team successfully identified a second high protein gene, THP3-T. Multi-year, multi-location field trials demonstrated that this gene can increase kernel protein content from 10 percent to over 13 percent in inbred lines without compromising yield, while also enhancing whole-plant protein content and enabling the maize to grow well and remain protein-rich with less fertilizer, Wu said.

Further research revealed that combining THP3-T and THP9-T produces an unprecedented synergistic effect, raising kernel protein content in inbred lines from 10 percent to 15 percent -- far exceeding the impact of either gene alone.

"The research not only discovered the 'key puzzle piece' for high protein maize breeding but also offers new possibilities for quality improvement and precise genetic enhancement of modern maize," Wu said.

The team has employed marker-assisted breeding technology to precisely improve over 80 parental lines of major maize cultivars in China, raising their protein content to more than 14 percent.

The team also successfully increased the kernel protein content of Zhengdan958, China's most widely cultivated maize hybrid, from 8.5 percent to over 12 percent.

Wu said that China produces approximately 300 million tonnes of maize annually. If the protein content of maize used for feed nationwide were raised by four percentage points to more than 12 percent, the total added protein would be equivalent to over 30 million tonnes of imported soybeans, which is roughly 30 percent of current soybean imports....

....MUCH MORE 

From the Chinese Academy of Sciences, June 4:

CAS in Media
Chinese Scientists Develop High Protein Maize in Animal Feed Quest 

And at the journal Nature:

June 3 -  A discarded allele boosts protein

And -  Teosinte alleles enhance nitrogen assimilation and seed protein in maize

Thursday, May 28, 2026

"Texas fertilizer plants at center of federal probe targeting market manipulation"

From the Houston Chronicle, May 26:

Fertilizer plants along the Texas Gulf Coast are at the center of a federal inquiry into allegations of market manipulation, as recent price spikes have left farmers struggling to afford the chemicals needed to grow their crops. 

The U.S. Department of Justice has requested information from fertilizer companies, as prosecutors investigate whether a series of corporate mergers in recent decades has turned the industry into an illegal monopoly that is gouging farmers.

At the same time, the U.S. Senate is weighing a series of bills that would require companies across the fertilizer supply chain to release their sales data to regulators, to try and chart where profits are being made. Similar legislation is under consideration in the U.S. House, and President Donald Trump has even taken notice, writing on social media last month, "the United States will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly."

 "I think there's structural things that need to be addressed," Senate Majority Leader John Thune said at a recent hearing on fertilizer prices in the Senate. "There's a small number of manufacturers who have the lion's share of fertilizer production.".....

....MUCH MORE 

There's an opportunity here. 

If interested (and who wouldn't be?) see also, from the University of Illinois' FarmDoc Daily, May 26: 

Consolidation Trends in the U.S. Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry  

Friday, May 22, 2026

"Tesla’s Newest Electric Vehicle Could Jolt the Trucking Industry" (TSLA)

From the New York Times, May 19:

Tesla hasn’t had a blockbuster new product since the Model Y sport utility vehicle went on sale in 2020.

But early reviews of the Tesla Semi, an electric heavy truck, suggest that it could be a much-needed hit for the company. And it could shake up the staid business of truck manufacturing in the same way that Tesla’s cars upended the auto industry.

After years of delays, Tesla has begun taking orders for the Semi, which is expected to cost around $290,000 for the version that can travel up to 500 miles on a charge, much less expensive than heavy-duty electric trucks sold by Daimler, Volvo and other companies, which usually sell for at least $400,000, according to estimates by the International Council on Clean Transportation. Tesla has said the Semi will also have a more affordable model that can travel 350 miles between charges. Both options would travel farther than trucks from other suppliers.

Cost and range are two of the main reasons that many logistics and delivery firms have been reluctant to buy electric trucks, which cost at least twice as much as diesel models and account for only a sliver of heavy truck sales.

“The problem with the technology that’s out there right now is their range is limited. They’re quite heavy, and they’re very expensive,” said Jennie Abarca, owner of King Fio Trucking in Long Beach, Calif., which has ordered 20 Tesla Semis. “This is something new coming to the market that kind of answers all those problems.”

Demand for the Semi appears strong. California trucking firms have asked the state government for subsidies to help them buy more than 1,200 Tesla trucks. That’s more than all the applications for other electric trucks since the state’s incentive program began in 2019.

Ivan Torres, a driver for Nevoya, a San Francisco-based trucking company, is a big fan of the Semi. He was at the wheel of one last month hauling power tools from the Port of Long Beach to Ontario, Calif., 60 miles away. Nevoya operates only electric trucks.

As the truck climbed a steep hill that separates Ontario from greater Los Angeles, Mr. Torres marveled at its power. “It hauls the load like nothing, just up,” he said from the padded driver’s seat, which sits atop a shock absorber that smooths out the bumps. Screens on either side of the steering wheel provided a view of the traffic around him.

Mr. Torres said the Semi was quieter than diesel rigs. And he can run the air-conditioning while waiting to drop off a load. That is sometimes not possible with diesel trucks because California limits how long those vehicles can idle in residential areas or near schools and hospitals to minimize pollution.

If Tesla can push the trucking industry toward battery power, the environmental implications could be significant. Heavy- and medium-duty diesel trucks make up a small percentage of all U.S. vehicles but are responsible for 45 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions from road transportation, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. Nitrogen oxides cause asthma and bronchitis and are the main component of smog.

Tesla’s timing may also be fortuitous. Diesel prices have risen around 50 percent since the war with Iran began, making battery power more attractive. Electricity is much cheaper per mile — even in California, where utility rates are relatively high.

So far, Tesla has produced the Semi in limited numbers for a few customers like Pepsi and Nevoya. But the company said last month that it had started an assembly line in Sparks, Nev., designed to produce up to 50,000 trucks a year.

If Tesla meets that target, the Semi could bring in tens of billions of dollars in revenue. That is still a modest amount compared with the trillions of dollars that Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla, expects from self-driving taxis and humanoid robots....

Friday, May 15, 2026

Dear Norway, Thanks Again: That Time A Couple Of Old Norwegian Guys Put Down Their Coffee, Sank A Nazi Warship and Saved Western Civilization

Over the years we've posted on military moments that were turning points in history, D-Day, the second day of the battle of Gettysburg, the Black Monday hailstorm in 1360.

Here's one we haven't reposted in a while that definitely qualifies. 

April 9, 2017

Okay, the 'saved Western civilization' part may be a bit much but April 9, 1940 was an important day.

Going back 77 years to the story of how a couple old coots, Birger Eriksen and Andreas Anderssen, hanging out on their little island, decide it's their job to defend the country against a Nazi freakin' armada headed for Oslo, go out and sink a brand new battle cruiser and send the rest of the invaders running, allowing the King and Government enough time to evacuate the capital to Hamar, 125 km north and eventually to set up the Government-in-exile plus kept the national treasury, 50 tons of gold, out of the hands of the Nazis.

As I put it a couple years ago to mark the 75th anniversary:

...sank the most modern ship in the German Navy, saved the Norwegian King and government from being taken captive and pulled Churchill's fat out of the fire-keeping the path open for him to assume the premiership of Britain and thus save Western Civilization.
We like Norway.

The two old guys at Oscarsborg that evening were Colonel Birger Eriksen, commander of the fortress, age 64 and Andreas Anderssen, a 60 year old Kommandørkaptein but retired and living in the town who Eriksen probably enticed to come out to the fort with offers of coffee and brown cheese.

As the German armada approached, Eriksen aware his rookie cadets had started their national service just days earlier and wouldn't be able to reload the old cannons, Moses and Aron, knew he'd only get one chance so he waited and waited for the Nazis to get closer.

At around a mile he disobeys general orders to first fire a warning shot, says "Either I will be decorated or I will be court-martialed, Fire!" and shoots at the heavy cruiser Blücher which had only been completed in September 1939.

No neutrality there.

They missed.

With the artillery now pretty much useless, Eriksen tells Anderssen to fire a couple obsolete land-based torpedoes. Anderssen does, missing the mark with the first, adjusting his aim and:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/df/German_cruiser_Bl%C3%BCcher_sinking.jpg
The rest of the flotilla including the pocket-battleship Lützow turned tail and ran back down the fjord, not quite sure what had hit them.
A pretty good English language version of the story is at:
Making do with what you have... [link rotted, here's the Internet Archive cache]

One of these days I'll get around to explaining why Churchill almost wasn't going to become Prime Minister the following month. 

When not saving the world the blue-eyed Arabs (oil business nomenclature) settled for saving Europe:

February 27, 2018
That Time A Dozen Norwegians Stopped the Nazis From Developing the Atom Bomb and Possibly Saved Europe 
 
This isn't the story of Birger and Andreas having to take a break from the brown cheese and herring and, well, we marked that anniversary with "That Time A Couple Of Old Norwegian Guys Put Down Their Coffee, Sank A Nazi Warship and Saved Western Civilization".

Rather, our headline event happened a few years later but first, I know everyone reading can't wait for a History-of-Norwegian-Industry-ca-1900 - 1915-diversion, so here goes. We've posted on Kristian Birkeland more than once, this is part of last year's "Shipping: He May Not Have Received His Nobel Prizes But The World's First Fully Electric Autonomous Container Ship Will Be Called the Birkeland"

...the introduction to the Plasma Universe entry on Birkeland:
Kristian Olaf Bernhard Birkeland (13 December 1867 - 15 June 1917) was a Norwegian scientist who has been called "the first space scientist"[1] and "the father of plasma experiments in the laboratory and space"[2] [3] [4]. He is perhaps most well-known for his scientific work on the aurora using a terrella (a magnetized globe), and as inventor of an electromagnetic cannon, and, a method of electrically producing artificial fertilizer. He also became a full professor of physics at the University of Oslo at the age of 31.

Birkeland also had astrophysical research published on cathode rays,[5] the Zodiacal lights,[6] comets,[7] the Sun and sunspots,[8] the origin of planets and their satellites,[9] the Earth's magnetism.[10]
 
Some of Birkeland's other contributions to science included:[2] • Derived the general expression for the Poynting vector • Gave the first general solution to Maxwell's equations [11] • Pioneered the field of charged-particle beams • Utilized the concept of "longitudinal mass" • Constructed the first foil diodes • Pioneered the field of visible-light photography of electrical discharges • Advocated charged-particle propulsion engines for space travel • Created Norsk Hydro's nitrogen-fertilizer industry (the Birkeland-Eyde method for production of potassium nitrate) • Invented an electromagnetic rail gun capable of firing a 10-kg projectile • Established Birkeland's Firearms company • Anticipated cosmic rays (discovered in 1911) with his calculations involving energies of several billion electron volts • Held patents on the electromagnetic cannon,[12] electric blankets, solid margarine, and hearing aids.

In 1969 when field-align currents had been identified in the Earth's atmosphere, they were named in his honor: Birkeland currents.[13]....
...MUCH MORE

He also co-founded Norsk Hydro and got his picture on the cover of the Rolling Stone Norway's 200 kr banknote:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e4/VII-200-forside-200.jpg

The note will become invalid at the end of this year and the old boy will be replaced by a cod and a herring....

It was that Norsk Hydro bit that is important to this tale.
Norsk Hydro made nitrogen fertilizer using giant arcs to fix nitrogen in the air to nitric oxide which could be further manipulated to become nitric acid which can then be used to make explosives or fertilizer or other stuff. The process was very energy inefficient but hey, it was the early 20th century and we're talking Norway. They have a few waterfalls.  Fast forward thirty years and despite the efforts of Birger and Andreas the Nazis have invaded and are intent on grabbing them some heavy water, of which Norsk Hydro has become the go-to source, as a byproduct of the now-modernized (no more Birkeland-Eyde process) fertilizer operation.

And it is here the story of February 28, 1943 really begins. From The Conversation via Scientific American:

Operation Gunnerside: The Norwegian Attack on Heavy Water That Deprived the Nazis of the Atomic Bomb
February 28 marks the 75th anniversary of one of the most dramatic and important military missions of World War II
The following essay is reprinted with permission from The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
The Conversation
After handing them their suicide capsules, Norwegian Royal Army Colonel Leif Tronstad informed his soldiers, “I cannot tell you why this mission is so important, but if you succeed, it will live in Norway’s memory for a hundred years.”

These commandos did know, however, that an earlier attempt at the same mission by British soldiers had been a complete failure. Two gliders transporting the men had both crashed while en route to their target. The survivors were quickly captured by German soldiers, tortured and executed. If similarly captured, these Norwegians could expect the same fate as their British counterparts, hence the suicide pills.

Feb. 28 marks the 75th anniversary of Operation Gunnerside, and though it hasn’t yet been 100 years, the memory of this successful Norwegian mission remains strong both within Norway and beyond. Memorialized in movies, books and TV mini-series, the winter sabotage of the Vemork chemical plant in Telemark County of Nazi-occupied Norway was one of the most dramatic and important military missions of World War II. It put the German nuclear scientists months behind and allowed the United States to overtake the Germans in the quest to produce the first atomic bomb.

While people tend to associate the United States’ atomic bomb efforts with Japan and the war in the Pacific, the Manhattan Project—the American program to produce an atomic bomb—was actually undertaken in reaction to Allied suspicions that the Germans were actively pursuing such a weapon. Yet the fighting in Europe ended before either side had a working atomic bomb. In fact, a rehearsal for Trinity—America’s first atomic bomb test detonation—was conducted on May 7, 1945, the very day that Germany surrendered.

So the U.S. atomic bomb arrived weeks too late for use against Germany. Nevertheless, had the Germans developed their own bomb just a few months earlier, the outcome of the war in Europe might have been completely different. The months of setback caused by the Norwegians’ sabotage of the Vemork chemical plant may very well have prevented a German victory.

Nazi bomb effort relied on heavy water
What Colonel Tronstad, himself a prewar chemistry professor, was able to tell his men was that the Vemork chemical plant made “heavy water,” an important ingredient for the Germans’ weapons research. Beyond that, the Norwegian troops knew nothing of atomic bombs or how the heavy water was used. Even today, when many people have at least a rudimentary understanding of atomic bombs and know that the source of their vast energy is the splitting of atoms, few have any idea what heavy water is or its role in splitting those atoms. Still fewer know why the German nuclear scientists needed it, while the Americans didn’t.

“Heavy water” is just that: water with a molecular weight of 20 rather than the normal 18 atomic mass units, or amu. It’s heavier than normal because each of the two hydrogen atoms in heavy H2O weighs two rather than one amu. (The one oxygen atom in H2O weighs 16 amu.) While the nucleus of a normal hydrogen atom has a single subatomic particle called a proton, the nuclei of the hydrogen atoms in heavy water have both a proton and a neutron—another type of subatomic particle that weighs the same as a proton. Water molecules with heavy hydrogen atoms are extremely rare in nature (less than one in a billion natural water molecules are heavy), so the Germans had to artificially produce all the heavy water that they needed.

In terms of their chemistries, heavy water and normal water behave very similarly, and you wouldn’t detect any differences in your own cooking, drinking or bathing if heavy water were to suddenly start coming out of your tap. But you would notice that ice cubes made from heavy water sink rather than float when you put them in a glass of normal drinking water, because of their increased density.

Those differences are subtle, but there is something heavy water does that normal water can’t. When fast neutrons released by the splitting of atoms (that is, nuclear fission) pass through heavy water, interactions with the heavy water molecules cause those neutrons to slow down, or moderate. This is important because slowly moving neutrons are more efficient at splitting uranium atoms than fast moving neutrons. Since neutrons traveling through heavy water split atoms more efficiently, less uranium should be needed to achieve a critical mass; that’s the minimum amount of uranium required to start a spontaneous chain reaction of atoms splitting in rapid succession. It is this chain reaction, within the critical mass, that releases the explosive energy of the bomb. That’s why the Germans needed the heavy water; their strategy for producing an atomic explosion depended upon it.

The American scientists, in contrast, had chosen a different approach to achieve a critical mass. As I explain in my book, “Strange Glow: The Story of Radiation,” the U.S. atomic bomb effort used enriched uranium—uranium that has an increased concentration of the easily split uranium-235—while the Germans used unenriched uranium. And the Americans chose to slow the neutrons emitted from their enriched uranium with more readily available graphite, rather than heavy water. Each approach had its technological trade-offs, but the U.S. approach did not rely on having to synthesize the extremely scarce heavy water. Its rarity made heavy water the Achilles’ heel of the German nuclear bomb program.

Stealthy approach by the Norwegians 
Rather than repeating the British strategy of sending dozens of men in gliders, flying with heavy weapons and equipment (including bicycles!) to traverse the snow-covered roads, and making a direct assault at the plant’s front gates, the Norwegians would rely on an alternate strategy. They’d parachute a small group of expert skiers into the wilderness that surrounded the plant. The lightly armed skiers would then quickly ski their way to the plant, and use stealth rather than force to gain entry to the heavy water production room in order to destroy it with explosives...MUCH MORE

So again, thanks. 

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

"Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen"

Our old pal, the nitrogen atom.* 

From ZeroHedge, March 24:

The fertilizer crisis appears to be worsening just as the Northern Hemisphere planting season, in some areas, is about to begin, with top ammonium nitrate supplier Russia announcing on Tuesday via state media that exports of the critical crop nutrient will be halted. 

Russia's state-run news agency TASS said Russia will suspend ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21. The report cited a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

The temporary restriction is intended to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. Exports made under intergovernmental agreements are exempt.

Russia is the world's largest producer of ammonium nitrate. In 2024, the country produced about 12 million tons, roughly 47% of the global output of the plant nutrient. It was also the largest exporter at about 2.7 million tons, around 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value.

Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.

Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions. 

The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year. 

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci warned clients earlier this month. 

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

Last week, former central banker advisor Alexandra Prokopenko warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a "slower, more consequential story": fertilizers.

"A near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a supply shock that will show up in food prices 6–9 months from now," Prokopenko wrote on X, adding, "Putin's gains here may be more long-term than simply lining his pockets with petrodollars."....

****

.... Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, following the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s."

Prokopenko pointed out, "Consequences already material. Urea up 25-30% since Feb. 28. Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts to South America and Asia. ~1 million metric tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf. Force majeure means contracts are legally severed, not delayed. Buyers must find alternatives now."....

....MUCH MORE

The analysts should be aware of "The Great Grain Robbery" in late summer 1972. If you look at the chart immediately above. that is when food prices began to spike and were actually coming down by the time oil prices quadrupled during/after the 1973 oil embargo.

It was the move in grains and then in meats that convinced me the CIA was either corrupt and made (big) money off of what happened or they were incompetent and didn't see what was happening.
The first (most relevant) hit is October 2020's "Turning air into bread":

Since I have been, and will be, going on about ammonia as a carrier for hydrogen 

NH3 - ammonia - three hydrogens attached to a nitrogen:

https://thiscondensedlife.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/ammonia.jpg?w=389&h=272

about fertilizer and guano, about Yara and Norsk Hydro and Birkeland and explosives, I thought it time to add another post to our nitrogen mini-library....

The outro has these backlinks: 

Previously on our friend, nitrogen:
"How Making One Chemical Created the Modern World"
"Can We Grow One of the World's Largest Food Crops Without Fertilizer?"
The Adventures of a Nitrogen Atom
This Could Be A Big Deal: Norway's Yara and the Australian Nitrogen Economy
Shipping: "UK Department of Transport recommends launch of ammonia / hydrogen powered vessels within 5-15 years"
Ammonia, it's what everyone is talking about.
And if your crowd isn't, you'll be the best-informed next-gen energy storage/transport-medium connoisseur at the Thursday afternoon salon!

The $100M Synthetic Biology Bet From Bayer and Ginko Bioworks (YAR:Oslo; CF)
"Saudi Arabia Sends Blue Ammonia to Japan in World-First Shipment"
Nitrogen Upgraded, Potash Target Lowered; Ununquadium Decayed (AGU, CF; TRA; POT)
That Time A Dozen Norwegians Stopped the Nazis From Developing the Atom Bomb and Possibly Saved Europe 

Many more links have been posted over the ensuing half-decade and are accessible via the search sorted by date (reverse chronological order):

https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/search?q=nitrogen&max-results=20&by-date=true 

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Capital Markets: "RBA Hikes in a 5-4 Decision, Trump=Xi Meeting Postponed, Beijing Tightens Restrictions on Fertilizer"

From Marc to Market:

There have been three developments to note. First, President Trump’s trip to China has been postponed by at least a month. The White House linked it to the war efforts, but earlier reports claimed Chinese officials were disappointed with the lack of progress in the preparatory efforts. The US administration also appeared to warn the meeting could be at risk if Beijing did not help open the Strait of Hormuz. That said, reports suggest Iranian oil shipments are still making their way to China. Second, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its policy rate for the second time this year. The decision was close, and although the Australian dollar initially dipped on the news, it recovered to approach $0.7100. Third, Beijing announced it would tighten cuts on fertilizer (nitrogen-potassium) and reiterated the existing restrictions on the export of urea. 

Brent and WTI oil are trading firmly within yesterday’s ranges. The dollar is mostly softer, with only the Canadian and New Zealand dollar among the G10 failing to find traction. Equities in Asia Pacific and Europe are firmer, but the advance may be challenged in North America today. European 10-year benchmark yields are softer, but the US yield is slightly firmer....

....MUCH MORE  

Friday, March 13, 2026

Fertilizer: "Oman port closure cuts off last ammonia export route from Middle East"

And in the U.S. major producer CF Industries is being accused of price gouging on a 30% uptick in the price of another nitrogen carrier, urea.*

From S&P Global, March 12 

The Omani port of Salalah on the Arabian Sea has been closed "until further notice," according to a customer advisory from the port, suggesting no ammonia can be exported from the Middle East, the world's largest export region.

"All terminal operations have been temporarily suspended until further notice," the advisory, issued March 11, said.

The closure comes after a drone strike on fuel tanks at the port on March 11, according to Oman state media.

OQ Trading uses Salalah port to export ammonia from the Salalah Methanol Company, most recently to Jordan.

The 26,000-metric ton gas carrier Gas Ammon, chartered by OQ Trading, is due at Salalah on March 15, according to S&P Global Energy shipping data.

A source familiar with the market told Platts on March 12 that the ship's loading appeared to have been canceled, and it would now only load bunker fuel upon arrival at the port.

Ammonia market participants say Salalah is the only loading port that could theoretically lift a cargo since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, with other major export hubs behind the Strait of Hormuz.

Salalah Port and OQ Trading did not respond to requests for comment.

Even if the port can load ammonia, it remains within the high-risk area and thus ships calling to the port would be subject to higher insurance premiums. Market sources have said shipowners have been reluctant to sail ships through the area to load ammonia, a highly toxic pressurized gas.

Three ammonia carriers -- two of which were loaded -- remain stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz after loading in Saudi Arabia and Qatar prior to the war.

A fourth ship, returning from a regular delivery to Asia, will stop and wait outside the high-risk area rather than sail to reload in Saudi Arabia, a shipping market participant told Platts March 11.

Major supply region
The Middle East, including Bahrain, Iran, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, exported 4.28 million mt of ammonia in 2025, from a global trade of 17.73 million mt, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts. Most came from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

Qatar Energy halted ammonia production following a drone strike on March 4, while Saudi Arabia's Maaden was reported to be running at reduced rates.

Production at Saudi Arabia's Sabic is unclear. The company has not responded to requests for comment.

No ammonia ships linked to Iran have been seen to have left the region since the war began, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea data....

....MUCH MORE 

As noted March 8:

"Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply"
We will see a double whammy in the ag sector. Fertilizer prices, including ammonia which is made from natural gas, are rising fast. Additionally, with the Northern Hemisphere planting season approaching, the cost of diesel fuel for the tractors and later this year for combines and other harvesting implements will of necessity pass through, eventually, to the end user....

And back in 2020:

"Turning air into bread"

Since I have been, and will be, going on about ammonia as a carrier for hydrogen, 

NH3 - ammonia - three hydrogens attached to a nitrogen: 

https://thiscondensedlife.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/ammonia.jpg?w=389&h=272

about fertilizer and guano, about Yara and Norsk Hydro and Birkeland and explosives, I thought it time to add another post to our nitrogen mini-library.
From the cheerfully optimistic The Roots of Progress....

Thursday, March 5, 2026

"Iran Conflict Sends Farmers Rushing to Secure Critical Fertilizers"

The markets moved very fast and made this a textbook "If you snooze, you lose" situation. 

From Bloomberg, March 5:

A third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while gas from the region is crucial to production of nutrients for global agriculture. 

Chet Edinger had already bought most of the fertilizer for his corn and soybean farm last year, but on Monday morning, with war breaking out in the Middle East, he rushed to secure a last few truckloads of urea for the tens of thousands of acres he cultivates near Mitchell, South Dakota.

“We grabbed what we needed,” he said by phone. It cost 22% more than late last year — “the highest price I ever had to pay.”

The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, and Tehran’s retaliation across the Middle East, have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, and farmers worldwide are rushing to secure critical nutrients. Around a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a nautical passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, which Iran has promised to shut to shipping. Prices of natural gas — a crucial element in fertilizer production — are soaring globally.

Visually searched image

The conflict has come at a sensitive moment for global agriculture. The cost of fertilizers is already high. Farmers in the northern hemisphere are about to begin fertilizing their fields, while winter-crop planting is approaching in the southern hemisphere.

The disruption is particularly frustrating for farmers in the US, who have been suffering for years from low crop prices and high input costs, as well as trade volatility since President Donald Trump took office.

“I don’t want to say it’s catastrophic, but it could not come at a worse time,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell. “Escalating attacks in the Middle East are creating a global chokepoint for farmers.”

If the disruption continues, it could add to inflationary pressures, just as the world is slowly recovering from a period of prolonged rising food prices caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and extreme weather shocks.

“Without fertilizer your yields go down. If your yields go down, then there’s less grain or rice or any food on the market,” said Philip Sunderland, a fertilizer trader at Aquifert. “There might be a lag of between six to nine months between getting the greens out of the ground and putting the food on your table. But you can expect inflation going through the roof around Christmas time.”

The market reaction to the war has been quick and dramatic. US prices for urea, which is widely used on corn crops, rose $70 from the prior week’s high to $550 a short ton, with some American suppliers pulling offers, Bloomberg Green Markets reported Tuesday. Egyptian granular urea prices jumped nearly 27% to $620 per metric ton. Price estimates also increased sharply in Russia, one of the world's top fertilizer producers.

In many cases, offers of products have been pulled and buyers are similarly waiting before committing, said Peter Harrisson, an analyst with researcher CRU Group. “Much of the fertilizer market is waiting to assess the impact of the conflict on availability,” he said.

Indian manufacturers of urea have started to curb output after Qatar suspended supplies of liquefied natural gas due to an attack, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified. In Pakistan, fertilizer company Agritech said on Wednesday that its supplies of gas were being suspended.

In Europe, which is dependent on gas for much of its energy, the fertilizer industry has been suffering in recent years from rising costs, production cutbacks and cheap imports from Russia. Soaring gas prices due to the new conflict in the Middle East are likely to add to the pressure. Poland’s state-run fertilizer producer, Grupa Azoty SA — one of the largest in the European Union — temporarily stopped taking orders for its fertilizers, citing higher gas prices that inflated their production costs.

The threat of shortages has put farmers worldwide in a state of anxiety.

Rafal Derlukiewicz, who owns an organic farm in eastern Poland, told Bloomberg he got a phone call from his neighbor about any excess horse and sheep manure, which he typically applies instead of synthetic products. “There is some panic here in Lubenka,” he said. “People cannot buy fertilizers.”

In Queensland, northeastern Australia, wheat and barley farmer Richard Golden got a call from his supplier earlier this week, urging him to pick up previously-booked supplies of imported nitrogen fertilizer — or risk it being snapped up by other increasingly nervous farmers. Some two-thirds of the country’s urea imports come from the Middle East...

....MUCH MORE 

March 4 - Inflation: "How disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens fertilizer supply and global food prices"

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Inflation: "How disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens fertilizer supply and global food prices"

From The Watchers, March 4: 

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply declined in early March after escalating conflict in the Gulf disrupted commercial navigation through the narrow corridor between Iran and Oman. While the strait is widely known as one of the world’s most important oil routes, it also connects natural gas exports from Gulf producers to global fertilizer production and agricultural supply chains. Disruptions affecting this corridor can therefore propagate beyond energy markets and influence fertilizer availability, agricultural input costs, and ultimately food prices worldwide.....

....According to Kpler commodity tracking data, approximately one-third of globally traded fertilizer, including nitrogen, phosphate, and sulphur, transits the Strait of Hormuz each month, representing 3 to 3.9 million tonnes of fertilizer exports.....  

....MUCH MORE 

Also at The Watchers: 

Flaming mud volcano in Columbia 

 https://watchers.news/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mud-Volcano-eruption-at-San-Juan-de-Uraba-Antioquia-Colombia-on-February-25-2026-1.webp

And:

Canada records lowest temperature in decades and record snowfall in winter 2025–26

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Digital Art: "What the hell happened to NFTs?"

From The Telegraph, October 4:

The mad gold rush of the digital art world has come to an abrupt end – and people are losing money fast 

“Everyone during this time, everyone I knew, was saying, ‘You gotta make an NFT,’” says the painter Max Denison-Pender, recalling the tulip fever that spread through the art world at the beginning of the 2020s. Its peak was marked by one seismic event. In March 2021, the venerable auction house Christie’s sold its first wholly digital artwork, Everydays: the First 5000 Days, by the artist known as Beeple, for $69.3 million (about £50m) in cryptocurrency, making it one of the most expensive works ever sold by a living artist; by contrast, Jeff Koons’s stainless steel sculpture Rabbit (1986) sold for $91.07 million in 2019 at the same auction house.

Everydays was a vast collage of individual digital works that its creator had been posting online at the rate of one a day since May 1, 2007. But there was little reason to believe that the art world had found another Warhol or Picasso. The Telegraph’s chief art critic dismissed the work as “a symptom of the desolation of digital culture”. Whatever you thought of it as an artwork, though, its price tag drove the art market into a frenzy. By December 2021, the digital artist Pak had sold a single artwork, Merge, split into 312,686 NFTs, for $91.8m at Art Basel. And it wasn’t even any good. It was an uninteresting monochrome digital image of spheres that suggested planetary (or molecular) distance.

But that was then, and this is now. In September this year, Christie’s quietly shuttered its specialist digital art division. Sotheby’s hasn’t entirely walked away from crypto art sales, but was left red-faced in 2022, when an NFT seller withdrew all lots as buyers waited with paddles in hand, then posted two hours later that he was “taking punks mainstream by rugging Sotheby’s” – a term for when crypto developers attract investors to a product, then disappear. The NFT boom has long since turned to bust, doing much damage to the reputation of digital art in the process, and one can only look back in amazement and ask, what the hell happened?

Beeple's Everydays: The First 5,000 Days sold for $69.3 million (about £50m) in 2021 
Beeple’s Everydays: The First 5,000 Days sold for $69.3 million (about £50m) in 2021 

....MUCH MORE 

But CryptoKitties, they're still bid, right? 

If interested see also:

March 2021 - "Beeple, the third-most valuable artist alive, says investing in crypto art is risky as a lot of NFTs 'will absolutely go to zero'"

March 2021 - Big Law (Latham & Watkins) On Whether Or Not NFT's Are Securities

April 2021 - Parents, Have You Talked To Your Kids About The End Of The NFT Boom?
Although not as crucial to their understanding of the world as the yield curve "talk", this is something the wee munchkins should be prepared for....

December 2021 - NFT Fat-Finger: Offering The NFT At $3000 When You Meant $300,000

January 2022 - NFT's And The Metaverse: "When the Stagnation Goes Virtual"

"But there is no natural scarcity in the digital world.
All the scarcity in this metaverse economy has to be imposed,
against the nature of the medium, at great effort and energy cost.
In the physical world, competition exists by necessity.
In the metaverse, it exists for its own sake—or maybe for the sake of investors."

May 2022 - Fringe Finance: "People Are Taking Out Loans Against Their NFTs—And Defaulting"

July 2022 - Can you truly own anything in the metaverse? (or in Canada?)

...The mention of Canada in the headline refers not just to the freezing of citizen's bank accounts by the the State during the trucker protests but encompasses how casually, even flippantly Trudeau and Freeland went about their totalitarian business. OED via Lexico: 

Totalitarian: Relating to a system of government that is centralized 
and dictatorial and requires complete subservience to the state.

Can there be anything more frightening than someone with a Chilliwack accent saying:

"If we see you oot and aboot in your truck, it's our money then, eh?"

well, maybe a few things

Still though, it was a bit of an eye-opener to see how quickly the government used the Emergencies Act, which is supposed to be used for, well, emergencies, how quickly they considered it just another Enabling Act. Speaking of which—and the Reichstag Fire Decree—I see that ##BlackfaceHitler is trending again in the Great White North, this time regarding the government's decision to emulate the Dutch nitrogen rules.

Anyway, where was I?
Metaverse, owning stuff in the metaverse.
September 2023 - "95% of NFTs are Worthless: Report"

[insert snarkiest snark snark here]

And finally (there are many more but we're getting into "stop me before I link again territory") finally:

June 2018 -  CryptoKitty Trading Volume Collapses: Andreessen, Union Square and Climateer Hurt Worst

Sunday, September 21, 2025

"The Tragic Physics of the Deadly Explosion in Beirut"

Following September 19's "Beirut Port Explosion Probe Gains Momentum With Extradition Request".

From Wired, August 6, 2020:

A blast injury specialist explores the chemistry—and history—of explosions like the one captured in videos that swept across the world. 

On August 4, 2020, a massive explosion blasted deadly waves through downtown Beirut. Then, video of the fireball rippled around the world almost as quickly. Now, details of the blast that started in a fireworks storage area by a small storage building at the end of Beirut pier trickle in as the world waits to hear what the final death, injury, and destruction tallies will be. However, in a way, the world already has some idea what to expect, because similar blasts have occurred before.
As a biomedical engineer with a doctorate in the patterns of injury and trauma that follow an explosion, scraping together information from accidental blasts is part of my daily work. The more mundane explosions are rarely this size, but the same principles of physics and chemistry apply. Science, along with a few case studies from history, let me do some preliminary calculations to puzzle out this explosion, too.

In 1917, an accidental detonation of six million pounds of hodgepodge high explosives in the harbor of Halifax, Nova Scotia, left a swath of wreckage that, at least until Tuesday, was the largest non-nuclear explosion ever created by humanity. As we learn more about Beirut, which could possibly challenge that record, the story of Halifax tells us what we might expect to learn about the ensuing trauma, and the modern cell phone videos, along with the blast physics gleaned by scientists in the intervening century, tell us why those patterns of trauma occurred in quite the way they did.

The Frisky Chemistry of Ammonium Nitrate
Every fire is a rearrangement of molecules, and an explosion is basically a fire turbocharged into a hyper-energy-fueled frenzy. Unstable structures barter and swap atoms with one another until all of them, happy with their trades, blissfully settle into more relaxed, lower energy states, like rocks reaching the bottom of a hill. But their excess energy has to go somewhere. In a campfire, where the chemical reactions are facilitated in a leisurely way by the oxygen in the air alone, energy is released slowly as enjoyable levels of heat and light. In an explosion, however, the devilish little instigator that is oxygen shoves the process into overdrive.

Early reports of the blast revealed that the building that sparked the eruption may have been storing large quantities of ammonium nitrate, a flammable chemical that has relatively harmless manifestations as fertilizer but has also been experimented with as a rocket fuel. Oxygen is the key to ammonium nitrate’s deadly habit of exploding, and given that 47 known, major, accidental ammonium nitrate explosions have occured in the last century, it is undeniably a habit. “Ammonium” is a nitrogen atom with four hydrogens, written NH4+, whereas the “nitrate” part of the mix is a nitrogen with three oxygens, NO3-. Under boring everyday conditions, the + of the ammonium and the – of the nitrate pull the two molecules into a harmless hug, but when you add spark—or a firework—the molecules realize that their very atoms can get a little friskier and convert into something completely new.

When ammonium nitrate is manufactured as fertilizer, it is mixed with other chemicals that usually stop this reaction from happening, though as the 2013 explosion at the West Fertilizer Company proved, those chemicals are not always successful. The first reports out of Beirut suggested fertilizer may have once again been the culprit. However, photos shared on social media showed bags marked “Nitroprill HD” supposedly being stored at the Beirut pier, and some have speculated that if those photos are accurate, Nitroprill may be a knockoff of the name-brand blasting agent Nitropril. Nitropril is designed for use in coal mines, so this particular breed of ammonium nitrate would not have been mixed with quieting chemicals like a fertilizer would be; rather, it would have been mixed to blow.

And nitrate, when mixed to blow, wants to ditch those little O’s. It’s chemically unstable, meaning the bonds between the N and the O’s vibrate with an unhappy level of physical tension. Overloaded with three oxygens, NO3- is eager to shove some onto any neighbor, and with a little bit of heat to get things moving, it will do so willingly. NH4+ is all too happy to accept.

The chemical rearrangement of ammonium nitrate answers a lot of the public questions about the videos, including the source of the startling red color of the plume. One of the byproducts of NO3- as it sheds all that oxygen is nitrogen dioxide, which has a logically obvious chemical structure of NO2, and looks deep, blood red. Many explosive materials give off tints and hues during a blast that suggest their chemical composition—chemical additives to color both smoke and explosions have been around since before the 1920s and are how we get different-colored fireworks and signaling flares—and it’s nitrogen dioxide that gives an ammonium nitrate explosion its signature, ominous blood-like tone. A small blast can look subtle and orange-ish, but on a large scale like at Beirut, the sunlight helps deepen its hue.

According to Brad Wojtylak, a special agent bomb technician and certified explosive specialist with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives, when smoke plumes are large enough they begin to catch the sunlight, and refraction will darken the normal colors produced by any explosion. Wojtylak is not directly involved in the Beirut investigation but has 16 years of experience investigating blast accidents. He says as sunlight bounces around within the cloud of contaminants, other, less determined wavelengths get refracted off in different directions. When a smoke plume happens on such a large scale only the longest wavelengths, the red shades, persevere all the way through to the viewer on the other side. So, the natural reddish color becomes even deeper, richer, darker than it would be for a small blast.

An explosive with a pure burn, like any explosive used in military-grade weaponry, will produce smoke that looks equally pure: snowy, billowy white, or sometimes a pale grey. But accidental explosions are far less tidy, and their sloppy combustion also produces ash, particulates, and gross black charred contaminated matter. This black gunk billows into the sky along with the other byproducts, coloring the smoke plume, like the charcoal residue left behind after the more efficient parts of the campfire wood have burned away. To a blast expert, the videos, with their roiling cloud of black and red curling over the pier of Beirut, scream “ammonium nitrate.”

Not a Shock Wave
The videos also show an unnervingly uniform hemisphere of white propagating outward from the blast site, a dome of vicious vapor that eventually hurtles toward every person filming and announces its arrival in the audio with a crash. This hemisphere is the pressure wave produced by the explosion.

No, it’s not a shock wave. It’s a pressure wave, and that key difference affects the number of casualties expected. A shock wave goes from zero pressure to its absolute maximum pressure in literally zero seconds. The impact of a pressure wave is like hitting the ground after rolling down a steep cliff; the force of a shock wave is like hitting the ground after falling through the air and reaching terminal velocity. High explosives produce shock waves; low explosives, like ammonium nitrate, produce pressure waves, which have a bit of slope to their shape, a period of time over which the pressure increases more gradually.

Shocks, because of their fascinating and complex physics, travel faster than the speed of sound, and cause far more damage than pressure waves. Thankfully, we know this blast did not produce a shock because the speed of the water vapor-filled white dome can be measured. 
The speed of sound in air is 343 meters per second. Based on the viewing angle and distinctive red chairs pictured in some of the later frames, I traced one of the Beirut videos posted by The Guardian to its filming location on the rooftop terrace of La Mezcaleria Rooftop Bar, and measured it to be 885 meters from the center of the blast. From that vantage, the pressure wave can be seen neatly traveling from the center of the blast first to the point halfway between the end of the pier and the edge of the long, massive grey grain silo building, a distance of 151 meters, then to the end of the pier, 262 meters, then eventually to La Mezcaleria.

By measuring the times at which the pressure wave reaches these landmarks on the video, we know that, as it blazed down the pier, its rampage occurred at a speed of only 312 meters per second. That’s slow for a bomb. Then by the time the audible crash and mayhem reached the formerly peaceful and picturesque outdoor bar, it had slowed to at most 289 meters per second. The pressure wave, slower than the 343 meters per second of sound, caused destruction, horror, confusion, shattered glass, torn apart flat surfaces, and disorientation for onlookers as their ears were subjected to the rapid pressure fluctuations. But a shock wave could have caused them to drop dead from lung trauma as they watched.

In the six million pound Halifax explosion of 1917, the propagation of the shock wave through downtown left a swath of fatalities reaching 1.5 miles from the center of the blast, killing an estimated 1,950 and leaving another 8,000 with devastating injuries. (The ships that exploded in the harbor were known to be carrying high explosives, which by their nature always make shock waves.) In Beirut, thankfully, while building damage has been reported up to 5.6 miles away, because the low-explosive ammonium nitrate made a pressure wave rather than a shock wave, the fatality estimates so far are still in the hundreds, even though the charge size was likely larger than the bomb in Halifax.

Thanks to modern technology that charge size can be calculated scientifically too, even while waiting for more complete information to trickle out, using the size of the telltale crater. Analysis of the aerial photographs of the pier shows a crater in the range of 120 to 140 meters in diameter; blast physics mixed with history tell us that to carve a chunk that size from the side of the planet requires a charge equivalent to 1.7 to 5.4 million kilograms of TNT (that’s 3.8 to 11.8 million pounds for any Americans dragging their feet on converting to metric). For reference, the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City in 1995 used the equivalent of 1.8 thousand kilograms of TNT. So, Beirut was at minimum a thousand times more boom than Oklahoma City....
....MUCH MORE