This site, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is one of our go-to info sources on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation; along with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
From IRI/Columbia, August 19:
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May–July 2026 and the July monthly value increasing to +2.03 °C. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on August 12, 2026, reached +2.7 °C. Together, these observations indicate that El Niño is strengthening further and evolving toward a very strong event....
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And the plume of predictions generated by both statistical and dynamic models:
CCSR/IRI ENSO Predictions Plume
Published: August 19, 2026
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
....MUCH MORE, additional graphs and narrative.
