From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:
The US dollar is mixed. It is mostly softer against the G10 currencies, though sterling, the Australian dollar, and Japanese yen are slightly firmer. The greenback is a bit weaker against most of the emerging market currencies. Of note, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new 3.5-year low, and the Mexican peso is at its best level since the Mexican election in the middle of 2024. The market did bid the dollar to a new post-intervention high against the yen (~JPY159.45) in the local session today.
President Trump claimed that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait”, but both sides appear to be hardening positions. Qatar and Pakistan have been mediating, but the oil prices remain near the highs for the month, suggesting the market remains skeptical. The data highlight today is the US July CPI, where the headline and core rates are expected to slip slightly. The futures market is discounting slightly less than a 50% chance of a hike next month ahead of the report....
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