For comparison the IMF is forecasting the world's Gross Domestic Product for 2026 at $126 trillion so ~24% of global GDP or 92.6% of the U.S. GDP forecast for 2026, $32.38 trillion.
Of course those are static measures. Using dynamic scoring Mr. Amodei would tell you AI will triple world GDP so his company's piece of the pie is only around an 8% share.
An exclusive from the Wall Street Journal, August 25:
The AI startup is likely to top SpaceX’s eye-popping potential revenue estimate
SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO tested the limits of an obscure financial metric. Anthropic’s could push it even further.
The maker of Claude is likely to tell investors its potential revenue opportunities are above $30 trillion, topping SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion estimate, according to people familiar with the matter.
Tech startups or other growing companies going public often estimate their “total addressable markets,” or TAMs, to show investors they have ample room to grow. Such figures estimate the amount of annual revenue a company could theoretically capture if it achieved 100% market-share using inputs ranging from industry data to bankers’ models.
While they have always involved a bit of guesswork, these estimates are especially squishy when it comes to trying to predict how the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence will upend entire industries.
Elon Musk’s rocket maker called its TAM “the largest actionable” market in “human history” when it revealed the figure in a May filing. Most of the figure, $26.5 trillion, was attributed to opportunities in AI.
The number was astronomic compared with those featured in previous IPOs, prompting some skepticism on Wall Street. When Uber went public in 2019, it described its market opportunity as $6 trillion, citing the mileage value of all personal cars and public transportation services globally. WeWork cited a $3 trillion market opportunity in its ultimately abandoned IPO.
New York University’s Aswath Damodaran, a finance known as “the Dean of Valuation” told The Wall Street Journal ahead of SpaceX’s June offering that the TAM the company saw in AI was “reaching the end of what’s plausible and pushing beyond.”
To quantify its TAM, Anthropic is looking at the full scope of work that could be completed with AI models, the people said.
Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6 billion in the second quarter. To put its more than $30 trillion vision in context, the 191 technology companies in the S&P 1500 brought in $2.4 trillion in revenue last year, according to FactSet....
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