From the Wall Street Journal, March 3:
Beijing sees risks in offering more than rhetorical support despite longstanding friendship with Tehran
HONG KONG—As the U.S. and Israel have pummeled China’s closest partner in the Middle East, killing Iran’s leader and calling for its people to overthrow the government, Beijing has responded with sharp denunciations, but little more.
The war carries several risks for China, potentially choking off the significant portion of its oil imports that runs through the Strait of Hormuz and highlighting the limits of its support for countries whose partnership it seeks in challenging the global dominance of the U.S.Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sunday that it was “unacceptable” for the U.S. and Israel to attack Iran while carrying out negotiations, “still less to blatantly assassinate a leader of a sovereign country and instigate regime change.”China “supports the Iranian side in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and national dignity,” Wang said, speaking with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi by phone on Monday.There was little else beyond words that China could offer Iran.Instead, Beijing is likely to position itself as an upholder of the international order and avoid ensnaring itself in a protracted Middle East conflict while preparing to work with whoever governs Iran after the fighting stops, analysts say.
That pattern follows Beijing’s limited support for the government of Venezuela, another close partner of China’s, when the U.S. military captured President Nicolás Maduro in January. It could also presage China’s stance if the U.S. were to take action against Cuba, with which Beijing has what it calls an “ironclad friendship.”
As the U.S. upends China’s geopolitical partners, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s continuing efforts to build a coalition of like-minded nations will likely be tarnished. He has promoted ambitious campaigns such as the Global Security Initiative and Global Development Initiative that lay out a vision of an alternative to a Western-led world order.
China, together with Russia, helped Iran join two multilateral groupings where they are charter members: the so-called Brics bloc of emerging economies in 2024 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security-focused body, in 2023.
But membership in such groups ultimately added little to Iran’s security. “It is very discouraging for anybody who believes that China was offering an alternative because there is no alternative,” said Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist for the French bank Natixis. “China won’t be there if you need them.”
Still, the war against Iran offers some bright spots for Chinese policymakers. The U.S. is straining its military capacity while depleting its stockpile of munitions, particularly the type of weapons that might be used in any sort of conflict with China over Taiwan.
The U.S. is also providing the Chinese military with a glimpse of its latest equipment and tactics. The U.S. has moved military resources out of Asia, a shift that could prove durable if the war in Iran doesn’t end quickly....
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