From Creighton's Heider College of Business, March 19:
Conflict in Iran Creating Significant Volatility in Ag Sector
March 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
- The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
- Weakness in the farm sector is spilling over into the business community with approximately 27.2% of bankers reporting that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.
- After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February.
- The 2026 conflict in Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales, with the index falling below growth neutral for the 31st straight month.
- More than half, or 52.4%, indicated no change or declines in delinquency rates, with 47.6 percent reporting that loan delinquency rates increased modestly.
Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)
OMAHA, Nebraska (March 19, 2026) - According to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for March to its lowest level since October 2025.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for March plummeted to 40.9 from February’s 47.9. This marks the 13th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the business community. Approximately, 27.2% of bankers reported that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Farming and ranchland prices: After falling below growth neutral for January and February, the March farm and ranchland index rose to 50.2 from 45.5 in February. “Farm and ranchland prices have been holding up much better than farm income,” said Goss....
....MUCH MORE
The Rural Mainstreet Index is one of two monthly coincident indicators that Professor Goss puts together, the other being the Mid-American Economy Index.
There is nothing else like them and when I write that I include the output of the big four ag-adjacent Federal Reserve Banks: Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City and St. Louis.
