Monday, March 16, 2026

Capital Markets: "Precarious Calm in the Capital Markets, with a Softer Greenback"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The war continues to dominate, but the dollar is trading lower against the G10 currencies. April WTI is trading in around a $3 range on both sides of $99 a barrel. US and European benchmark 10-year yields are a little softer. If the markets seem calmer, recognize that it is precarious as the fog of war limits visibility. Meanwhile, Chinese macro data for February were reported mostly a little better than expected, French municipal elections race run-off next weekend and the key is who can form alliances

Before the weekend, a US federal court blocked the Justice Department’s subpoena of the Federal Reserve and US attorney for the District of Colombia (Pirro) says she will appeal but it appears no formal decision has been made. The shift in the calculation of the US PCE deflator from using the CPI measure of legal services to the PPI estimate caught the market by surprise as it was not announced or explained, but seems to have taken about 0.1% off the core measure, playing on fears of the integrity of US data....

....MUCH MORE