From Reuters, March 11:
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent, WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/67 per barrel from $66/62 as it sees longer disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.Brent prices have gained more than 36% since the war began on February 28, while WTI has risen about 39%. Both benchmarks briefly topped $119 on Monday, their highest levels since mid‑2022.The fighting has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers stranded for more than a week and forcing producers to suspend output as storage nears capacity.Goldman analysts in a note on Thursday said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz (SoH) oil flows at 10% of normal levels followed by a 30-day gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption....
....MUCH MORE
But what of Iran's BFFs, the Houthis?
The Saudi East -West pipeline was a strategic necessity, capable of 7mm Bbl/day, but the Houthis can still target ships approaching or departing through the Bab-al-Mandeb connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Meaning everything would have to move north through the Suez canal which limits the size of the tankers to 1mm Bbl per i.e the SuezMax ships:
