Friday, March 13, 2026

Inflation: More On The Personal Consumption Price Index Release

Following on the earlier quick hit "BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: Headline UP 0.3%; Core UP 0.4%". 

From ZeroHedge, March 13:

Savings Rate Highest In 6 Months As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Rises Near 2-Year High 

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose o.4% MoM in January (in line with expectations) with YoY rising by 3.1% (as expected), slightly higher than the 3.0% in December...

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5CD3.jpg?itok=JU1lULay 

Source Bloomberg

That is the highest YoY Core PCE since March 2024.

The headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) driving prices up 2.8% YoY (down from December's +2.9% YoY)...

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB928.jpg?itok=ZFOIfExp 

Source Bloomberg

Services continue to dominate the prices gains with Goods costs dropping very marginally in January...

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmBE2B.jpg?itok=4BZiIyLQ 

Source Bloomberg

For those worried about the impact of crude oil's recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears - somehow - that PCE's Energy component has already front-run a lot of the move...

....MUCH MORE