When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars
From PitchBook, March 2
The accompanying data pack for this report was updated on March 5, 2026, to correct the number of Falcon 9 launches featured in the financial model.
PitchBook clients can access this report’s Excel data pack via the Research Center on the PitchBook Platform.
SpaceX is preparing for what could be the largest IPO in history, targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation and looking to raise as much as $50 billion. PitchBook’s initiation report and bottom-up financial model offer a granular, independent look at SpaceX’s financials to value the opportunity and learn about key business drivers.
Is a $1.5 trillion valuation justified?
At nearly 95x our 2025 revenue estimate of $16 billion, the valuation is rich but not irrational. Our sum-of-the-parts analysis places fair value between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, with the IPO target sitting within that range. Benchmarked against high-growth large-cap peers, SpaceX’s profile warrants a premium multiple, with around 50% EBITDA margins and around a 50% three-year revenue CAGR in addition to multiple compounding growth vectors. The valuation becomes progressively easier to justify over a 5-7 year horizon as Starship commercializes and the direct-to-cell business scales, with returns driven by milestone execution rather than near-term earnings growth.
The xAI acquisition: Reframing the story
SpaceX’s February 2026 acquisition of xAI transforms its public market narrative from a rockets-and-internet company into a deeply integrated AI-and-space-infrastructure platform—exactly the profile the market is currently paying the highest premiums for. The financial contribution from xAI will be incremental in the early years, but AI businesses at this stage command significant multiples, and the synergies between SpaceX’s infrastructure and xAI’s compute ambitions reinforce a platform story that competitors have found nearly impossible to replicate.
Starlink: The cash flow engine...
....MUCH MORE
