There may be five to ten-thousand dead.
The only possible positive note on the human scale of the disaster is that at least it wasn't Istanbul.
Two from Artemis, February 6, 2023:
Turkey hit by M7.8 earthquake. USGS gives 34% chance damages rise above $1bn
Significant fatalities and damage have been reported after Southern Turkey was struck by a major Magnitude 7.8 earthquake this morning close to Gaziantep, near the Syrian border. The US Geological Survey (USGS) gives a 34% chance that the economic impact will reach above US $1 billion.
This earthquake is one of the largest ever recorded in Southern Turkey, although the region is particularly seismically active.
The death toll is already reported to have risen above 500 people, with that figure expected to rise much higher and the USGS Pager data suggests a 47% chance more than 1,000 deaths will have occurred from the quake.
More than 1,700 buildings are reported to be damaged or destroyed in Turkey alone, according to a statement from the Vice President, with some cities particularly badly impacted.
Kahramanmaras, a city of more than 1 million people, has been hit hard, as too have Malatya, Hayat region and reports suggest up to 10 major cities heavily affected by collapsing buildings.
Northern Syria has also seen significant damage, with over 200 reported dead in the country.
The USGS said, “On February 6, 2023, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred in southern Turkey near the northern border of Syria. The earthquake was followed 11 minutes later by a magnitude 6.7 aftershock. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake resulted from strike-slip faulting at shallow depth. The event ruptured either a near-vertical left-lateral fault striking northeast-southwest, or a right-lateral fault striking southeast-northwest.....
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And:
The devastating magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck southern Turkey this morning is unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the performance of catastrophe bonds, given Turkish quake risk is only a minor component of some retrocessional deals, Plenum Investments has said.
We reported this morning about the terrible damage caused by this earthquake, which is now thought to have killed more than 1,000 people, over 900 in Turkey alone, with another few hundred killed in Syria.
More than 2,000 buildings are thought to have collapsed in Turkey alone, raising the prospect of a particularly costly catastrophe event for this part of the world, with some ramifications for insurance and reinsurance markets.
In particular, as we reported earlier, the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (the TCIP) reinsurance tower is thought likely to respond to such a damaging earthquake, which means some international reinsurers could be on the hook for a share of losses.
Some major reinsurance firms have retro catastrophe bonds that feature Turkish earthquake risk as one of the perils covered, and cat bond focused investment manager Plenum commented on this today....
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....Update: A second magnitude 7.5 quake has struck the same region today, with officials initial response being that this was not considered an aftershock.
In 2017 we looked at some of the perils:
"Risk:Today's 6.7-Magnitude Turkish Earthquake Was Not The 'Big One'"
"Risk: Massive Earthquake Could Hit Istanbul at any Moment with just SECONDS Warning, Say Scientists".
And related:
Sultan Erdoğan's Dream: "Construction of Kanal İstanbul to start on June 26, despite opposition"
