Thursday, February 9, 2023

Capital Markets: "US Interest Rate Adjustment Post-Jobs is Over as the 2-Year Yield Backs Away from 4.50%"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly. European bonds yields are 8-10 bp lower. Sweden's Riksbank was more aggressive than expected with an announcement not only a a 50 bp rate hike but of active bond selling in a couple of months. Its 10-year yield is up almost 25 bp.

The Swedish krona is the best performing G10 currency today, surging 2.3% against the US dollar, which is trading broadly lower. The dollar's jump following last week's extraordinary jump in nonfarm payrolls is being retraced. The rate adjustment in light of the data and Fed comments has been made. This is reflected by the US two-year yield stalling near 4.50% earlier this week and is now back to around 4.40%, which is still 9-10 bp above where it settled last week. A weaker dollar and softer yields are helping gold trade higher for the fourth consecutive session. After falling to almost $1861 at the end of last week, it is pushing above $1885 today. March WTI is also higher for the fourth session. It settled near $73.40 last week and has approached $79 today.

Asia Pacific
Japan's Prime Minister Kishida is expected to name BOJ Governor Kuroda's successor next week....

....MUCH MORE