Two via Mining.com. First up, the headliner from Bloomberg, January 9:
The billionaire at the center of last year’s nickel short squeeze is planning a major shift in his production mix, in a move that could reshape global supply dynamics and inject fresh volatility into the battered nickel market.
Xiang Guangda’s Tsingshan Holding Group Co. is seeking to profit from an unusually large premium in the price of refined nickel metal – the type that is deliverable on exchanges in London and Shanghai – over the intermediate forms that Tsingshan supplies for battery manufacturing, according to people familiar with the matter.
Tsingshan, which is already building facilities to produce refined nickel in Indonesia, is in discussions with several struggling Chinese copper plants about processing its material into the more-valuable refined metal, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. If successful, Tsingshan’s plan, together with similar moves by its peers, could double Chinese refined nickel production this year, from about 180,000 tons in 2022 — adding roughly a fifth to global refined output.
Xiang’s move is a response to a growing divergence in the nickel world: total supply is headed for a years-long surplus, driven by a surge in production from Indonesia where Tsingshan and others are ramping up output of the intermediate forms like ferronickel and mixed hydroxide precipitate that now dominate the market. Xiang — known in commodities circles by the nickname “Big Shot” — and other Chinese producers are also increasingly concerned about a weakening outlook for electric-vehicle demand in China, the people said....
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Talk about cross-currents: taking copper plants out of production but expecting weakness in EV sales.
And re: copper itself, we are still waiting patiently for a revisit of 2022's lows:
Most active March futures 4.0040 down 0.0225 (-0.56%).
And from Mining.com staff, January 9:
Copper price at over 6-month peak as China reopens border
The copper price jumped to a more than six-month high on Monday as demand prospects brightened after China reopened its borders.
Copper for delivery in March rose 3% on the Comex market in New York, touching $4.03 per pound, or $8,866 per tonne.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit its highest since June 23, 2022 at $8,711 earlier in the session.
The most-traded March copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.5% at 66,090 yuan ($9,750.52) a tonne.
Mainland China opened sea and land crossings with Hong Kong and ended a requirement for incoming travelers to quarantine....
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Although a lot of the commentary talks about China re-opening, the fall of the dollar from its intraday DXY 114.75 high in September is probably more important:
103.244 +0.069 (+0.07%)
The big flaw in the DXY is that it doesn't include the Chinese currency. But against the basket it does include, which ones do you think will outperform the dollar over the next year?
Here are the components and their weightings:
Euro (EUR) 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP) 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
If none of the above, which is our view, then the dollar trades higher.
