Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Torsten Sløk On The Economic Effects of Declining Births

Apollo's Chief Economist (né Deutsche Bank) at Apollo Academy, January 29

Since the financial crisis in 2008, the fertility rate has declined more in the US than in other countries, see chart below and here. Lower population growth leads to secular stagnation, and it has significant consequences for the level of interest rates, Fed behavior, and expected returns for investors, see also here and here....

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On a cheerier note, via Business Insider, January 31:

The US economy is doing better than markets are pricing in so it could well avoid a recession, top strategists say