Monday, January 30, 2023

Nvidia, China's choice for doing nuclear weapons research (NVDA)

Hmmm, not the best marketing tagline I've ever come up with. Maybe a little alliteration?

"China's Chip Choice, NVDA"

Ummm, never mind. 
China has had serious problems manufacturing state-of-the-art chips, in spite of billions of dollars thrown into the attempt. Now Japan the U.S. and probably most importantly the Netherlands (ASML, ~100% market share in EUV lithography) are about to further tighten the restrictions on chip tech.
 
I'm guessing that China's recent mooting of export controls on solar wafers (97% market share), black silicon and silicon casting equipment for solar cells is related to the chip story.
For what it's worth it is probably easier to smuggle GPU chips than photolithography systems.
 
From the Wall Street Journal, Jan. 29:
 
China’s Top Nuclear-Weapons Lab Used American Computer Chips Decades After Ban 

State-owned institute continued buying Intel- and Nvidia-made chips despite inclusion on a U.S. export blacklist in 1997

SINGAPORE—China’s top nuclear-weapons research institute has bought sophisticated U.S. computer chips at least a dozen times in the past two and a half years, circumventing decades-old American export restrictions meant to curb such sales.

A Wall Street Journal review of procurement documents found that the state-run China Academy of Engineering Physics has managed to obtain the semiconductors made by U.S. companies such as Intel Corp. and Nvidia Corp. since 2020 despite its placement on a U.S. export blacklist in 1997.

The chips, which are widely used in data centers and personal computers, were acquired from resellers in China. Some were procured as components for computing systems, with many bought by the institute’s laboratory studying computational fluid dynamics, a broad scientific field that includes the modeling of nuclear explosions.

Such purchases defy longstanding restrictions imposed by the U.S. that aim to prevent the use of any U.S. products for atomic-weapons research by foreign powers. The academy, known as CAEP, was one of the first Chinese institutions put on the U.S. blacklist, known as the entity list, because of its nuclear work.

A Journal review of research papers published by CAEP found that at least 34 over the past decade referenced using American semiconductors in the research. They were used in a range of ways, including analyzing data and generating algorithms. Nuclear experts said that in at least seven of them, the research can have applications to maintaining nuclear stockpiles. CAEP didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The findings underline the challenge facing the Biden administration as it seeks to more aggressively counter the use of American technology by China’s military. In October, the U.S. expanded the scope of export regulations to prevent China from obtaining the most advanced American chips and chip-manufacturing tools that power artificial intelligence and supercomputers, which are increasingly important to modern warfare.

Most of the chips procured by the academy ranged in size from 7 nanometers to 14 nanometers, many of which are difficult for China to mass produce. They are widely available on the open market: Versions of Intel’s Xeon Gold and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX chips purchased by CAEP can be bought off Taobao, one of China’s largest e-commerce marketplaces. The purchases didn’t include the latest generation of chips launched within the last two years.

Nvidia said that the semiconductors used in CAEP’s research were general-purpose graphics chips found in consumer products such as personal computers. With millions of PCs sold worldwide, the U.S. chip maker said no company can monitor or control where every PC ends up. Intel said it complies with export regulations and sanctions and so must its distributors and customers.

“It’s insanely difficult to enforce” the U.S. restrictions when it comes to transactions overseas, said Kevin Wolf, a former top Commerce Department official who is now an international trade lawyer. Purchases in China accounted for more than a third of the world’s $556 billion in chip sales in 2021, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Founded in the late 1950s, CAEP is based in China’s western Sichuan province and employs some of the country’s best nuclear-weapons researchers. Physicists there helped develop the country’s first hydrogen bomb. It conducts research into computer science, electrical engineering and other fields.....

....MUCH MORE

Related:

Earlier on China's failure to launch, semiconductor-wise
August 28, 2019
Chips: How China Is Still Paying the Price For Squandering Its Chance To Build a Home-grown Semiconductor Industry 
Should China ever invade Taiwan the TSMC fabs would be quite a prize.
We've looked at this oddity a few times, some links below....

Also at the SCMP, Aug. 28 2019:
Are China’s investments in semiconductors all for naught? US expert says China is at a crossroads

Previously:
July 3
China to Narrow Chip Gap With Taiwan Invasion

Did I say invade? I meant trade.
I must have been thinking of China's Defense Minister last month saying "China must be and will be reunited".
With the Taiwanese elections coming up it's probably as good a time as any for Beijing to make some sort of move. Probably not invasion though. China will want to test its military somewhere, our guess is Vietnam, before tackling Taiwan. So probably some sort of fifth column action, cyber, electrical grid etc. And the people to do it are already on the island, I mean if the Chinese could get one of their spies into Dianne Feinstein's office while she was Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee (2009 - 2015), the guy was her San Francisco office manager, not, as reported, the chauffeur, if they could do that there is no doubt they have assets in Teipei.
So where was I?
June 14, 2019
"China chip industry insiders voice caution on catch-up efforts"
May 1, 2018
Beijing’s big chip push goes into hyperdrive
March 28, 2019
China's AI Dream: The Plan and the Players
January 2018
"Can Chinese AI Chip Makers Compete with Nvidia?" (NVDA)
January 2018
"China wants to make the chips that will add AI to any gadget"