They are very bullish but as far as copper prices go—for this calendar year—you have everyone, including the proverbial "dentist from Peoria" (Los Angeles Times, Jan. 21, 1989), on the long side of the futures. Additionally, in homebuilding we have not yet seen much reduction in construction employment. This is one industry that is not susceptible to the newly discovered "employee hoarding", instead the contractors lay off and the workers apply for unemployment benefits as soon as the order book lightens up
From the company, January 25:
Freeport-McMoRan Reports Fourth-Quarter and Year Ended 2022 Results
• Solid execution
◦ Copper and gold sales volumes exceeded October 2022 estimates ◦ Consolidated unit net cash costs below October 2022 estimate • Strong financial position
• Favorable operational and market outlook
▪ Net income attributable to common stock in fourth-quarter 2022 totaled $697 million, $0.48 per share, and adjusted net income attributable to common stock totaled $748 million, $0.52 per share, after excluding net charges totaling $51 million, $0.04 per share.
▪ Consolidated sales totaled 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 458 thousand ounces of gold and 19 million pounds of molybdenum in fourth-quarter 2022, and 4.2 billion pounds of copper, 1.8 million ounces of gold and 75 million pounds of molybdenum for the year 2022. Consolidated sales for the year 2023 are expected to approximate 4.2 billion pounds of copper, 1.7 million ounces of gold and 80 million pounds of molybdenum, including 0.9 billion pounds of copper, 300 thousand ounces of gold and 20 million pounds of molybdenum in first-quarter 2023.
▪ Average realized prices in fourth-quarter 2022 were $3.77 per pound for copper, $1,789 per ounce for gold and $18.94 per pound for molybdenum.
▪ Average unit net cash costs were $1.53 per pound of copper in fourth-quarter 2022 and $1.50 per pound of copper for the year 2022. Unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.60 per pound of copper for the year 2023.
▪ Operating cash flows totaled $1.1 billion (net of $0.5 billion of working capital and other uses) in fourth-quarter 2022 and $5.1 billion (net of $1.5 billion of working capital and other uses) for the year 2022. Based on current sales volume and cost estimates, and assuming average prices of $4.00 per pound for copper, $1,900 per ounce for gold and $20.00 per pound for molybdenum, operating cash flows are expected to approximate $7.2 billion (including $0.1 billion of working capital and other sources) for the year 2023.
▪ Capital expenditures totaled $1.0 billion (including $0.5 billion for major mining projects and $0.3 billion for the Indonesia smelter projects) in fourth-quarter 2022 and $3.5 billion (including $1.7 billion for major mining projects and $0.8 billion for the Indonesia smelter projects) for the year ended 2022. Capital expenditures for the year 2023 are expected to approximate $5.2 billion (including $2.3 billion for major mining projects and $1.8 billion for the Indonesia smelter projects).
▪ At December 31, 2022, consolidated debt totaled $10.6 billion and consolidated cash and cash equivalents totaled $8.1 billion, resulting in net debt of $2.5 billion ($1.3 billion excluding net debt for the Indonesia smelter projects). Refer to the supplemental schedule, "Net Debt," on page IX. ▪ Approximately $3.2 billion remains available under FCX's $5.0 billion share repurchase program. During 2022, 35.1 million shares were repurchased for $1.3 billion for the period through July 11, 2022. Future share repurchases will be funded with available cash flow pursuant to FCX's established financial policy....
....MUCH MORE (41 page PDF)
And the conference call slide deck (39 page PDF)
Although Tesla is not a huge user of copper, if memory serves the amount is around 180 pounds per vehicle, in the motor and also in the wiring harnesses and battery connections. It is not something the company has expressed concerns about, not anywhere near the way they approach nickel and lithium refining (not mining).
Here's a pretty funny Twitter back and forth from a couple days ago:
No change in copper production is required for the transition to sustainable energy.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2023
Lithium refinement needs to increase dramatically, but lithium ore itself is extremely common throughout Earth.
Damn, I just got fact checked by Elon Musk. 😢
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) January 22, 2023
On the other hand, as noted in September 2022's "Copper Conudrum":
A 3-MW wind turbine contains up to 4.7 tons of copper. Half is from the cable and wiring, 24% from the turbine/power generation components, 4% from transformers, and 19% from turbine transformers. Onshore wind farms use approximately 7,766 lbs. of copper per MW.
That's a lot of copper.
