Tuesday, January 10, 2023

"Japan dives into rare earth mining under the sea"

It's taken them long enough.*

From Asia Times, January 10:

Japanese move aims to cut current 60% dependence on China and become self-sufficient by end of the decade  

Japan’s effort to mine the seabed is moving from the research and development stage toward resource extraction as technological advance is spurred by the demands of national economic security.

If all goes according to plan, Japan’s current dependence on China for its rare earth metal supplies could be greatly reduced or eliminated by the end of the decade. China currently dominates global production, processing about 85% of the world’s rare earths.

Japan’s new National Security Strategy document, released in December, states that “with regard to supply chain resilience, Japan will curb excessive dependence on specific countries.” 

Furthermore, it will “secure stable supply for critical goods including rare earth, and promote capital reinforcement of private enterprises with critical goods and technologies, and strengthen the function of policy-based finance, in pursuit of protecting and nurturing critical goods.”

The English version is stamped “Provisional Translation,” but the statement is consistent with the original Japanese.

Rare earth metals are a group of 17 heavy metal elements, some of which are of critical importance to the manufacture of electric vehicle motors (dysprosium), wind power generators (neodymium) and other electronic devices. They are used in magnets, batteries, lasers and many other industrial products and processes.

Japan currently imports about 60% of its rare earth metals from China, but they are available in large quantities on the sea floor – if they can be accessed.

Last August and September, Japanese marine engineers working under the auspices of the Cabinet Office’s Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program succeeded in pumping up seabed material from a depth of nearly 2,500 meters in the waters near Minami-Torishima....

....MUCH MORE
Here's an interesting map from the article, as we've said over the years, Japan has a real interest in who controls Taiwan:

https://i0.wp.com/asiatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/japan-maritime-zone-e1673293205111.jpeg?w=1200&ssl=1

*Previously:
October 2022
"Breaking China’s grip on rare earths markets a ‘pipe dream,’ Australia says"

Better to stick with the battery metals right now, though nickel is going into surplus this quarter or next, copper is as sensitive to the slowdown in Chinese housing construction as it is to upside in the green revolution, cobalt is on the way out of battery chemistry if Mr. Musk has his way and lithium has gotten so expensive it is now a bottleneck on the final-price of electric vehicles.

Of the four we are betting copper trades down to last summer's low of $3.13, and maybe below $3.00 before turning into a shiny red rocketship.

On the headline stuff, somewhere between 2010 and today the U.S. and the West lost their way on the rare earths and we've only posted sporadically since the  Happy Time with MolyCorp and all the little scams, all the while reflecting back on what's probably the best book on investing that's been written since de la Vega's Confusion de Confusiones (Amsterdam, 1688):

...Words like "uranium", "rare earths", etc. seem to be magic to
 those unsuspecting who are often fleeced...
Gerald M. Loeb
The Battle for Investment Survival
Simon & Schuster, 1935

June 2022 "Huge rare earth reserve discovered in Turkey, but experts caution that ‘grade is king’"

Not just grade. The composition of a deposit, the amounts of the 17 rare earth elements is critical. As one example, the Mountain Pass mine in the U.S. despite its relatively high grade (8% REEs) is actually not as valuable as some lower grade mines with a more profitable mix.

Additionally, exploitation of a REE resource is highly dependent on processing and supply chain factors that can not quickly be brought into being, it's one thing to have the deposit, quite another to have, for example, the end product, a neodymium magnet.

We have some experience with this stuff, if interested see after the jump....

(we've been tracking the doings of the big dog since 2009's "With a Name Like Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., it has to be good (600111:Shanghai)"

If you are interested, I believe MolyCorp's Mountain View mine ended up in Chinese hands leaving Australia's Lynas Corp (LYC.ax) as probably the best in the West. (mentioned in the story below)....
May 2021
"Japan’s global rare earths quest holds lessons for the US and Europe"
The thing that stood out at the time was how open-minded the Japanese were about potential sources. If the scientists said they thought they could recover rare earths from sewage, the government said "Go find out" From offshore deposits? Ditto.*

June 2012  

July 2011 
Rare Earths: Japan Finds Huge Undersea Deposits; German Industry Dubious; Stocks Droop (AVL; MCP; REE)

Stocks trade generally mournful and reflective.
In early premartket, Molycorp is down, $1.54 (2.57%) at $58.30, Rare Element is down 2.65% at $10.64 and Avalon is down 2.92%
Auspicious update, below.

Oct. 2010 
"Japan Scrambles for Rare Earth" (AVL.TO; LYC.AX; MCP) 600111: Shanghai
Oct. 2010 
"Japan's rare earth minerals may run out by March" and Japan to Mine Sewage Sludge, E-Waste for Precious and REE Metals 

And recently in geopolitics:
Chips: Taiwan, Japan Eye 'All Round Cooperation'
China's Emperor Xi And The Threat To Destroy Japan
Japan's Responses In the Event Of A Chinese Attack On Taiwan
You can see Japan's quandary if you follow the islands down to Okinawa and beyond....