From Columbia University's Andrew Gelman and his trusty (and trustworthy) blog, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, January 18:
Kaiser Fung tells the story. First the background:
Australia, having pursued a zero Covid policy for most of the pandemic, only allows vaccinated visitors to enter. Djokovic, who’s the world #1 male tennis player, is also a prominent anti-vaxxer. Much earlier in the pandemic, he infamously organized a tennis tournament, which had to be aborted when several players, including himself, caught Covid-19. He is still unvaccinated, and yet he was allowed into Australia to play the Open. . . . When the public learned that Djokovic received a special exemption, the Australian government decided to cancel his visa. . . . This then became messier and messier . . .
In the midst of it all, some enterprising data journalists uncovered tantalizing clues that demonstrate that Djokovic’s story used to obtain the exemption is full of holes. It’s a great example of the sleuthing work that data analysts undertake to understand the data.
Next come the details. I haven’t looked into any of this, so if you want more you can follow the links at Kaiser’s post:
A central plank of the tennis player’s story is that he tested positive for Covid-19 on December 16. This test result provided grounds for an exemption from vaccination . . . The timing of the test result was convenient, raising the question of whether it was faked. . . .
Digital breadcrumbs caught up with Djokovic. As everyone should know by now, every email receipt, every online transaction, every time you use a mobile app, you are leaving a long trail for investigators. It turns out that test results from Serbia include a QR code. QR code is nothing but a fancy bar code....
....MUCH MORE
Some prior visits with Professor Gelman:
“Using Benford’s Law to Detect Bitcoin Manipulation”
Professor Gelman Is Not Impressed By The "Nudge" People
Andrew Gelman is Professor of statistics and political science at Columbia Uni., the guy who tells the other social scientists how to get their numbers right so they can at least give the appearance of being a science. He has a very tart tongue which, combined with a high level intellect is fun to watch taking on sacred cows and shibboleths. As long as you aren't the target of said intellect and/or sharp tongue.
Here he is looking at Cass Sunstein as Sunstein's new book rolls out....
An old favorite from 2018:
"Big Oregano Strikes Again"
I can't wait until he gets around to some of the spurious correlations propagated by the International Parsley Cartel....
