From S&P Global Platts:
Iraq's oil production forecast tops this week's charts to watch as the country's standoff against international oil companies may put its capacity expansion plans at risk. Also worth following this week are falling iron ore prices, waning fuel-switching capacity in the US, rising gas prices in Europe and a firm North Sea crude demand.
4. Battle for global LNG volumes pushes benchmark TTF to record high
What's happening? Dutch TTF gas prices broke through the Eur40/MWh mark for the first time July 29 as European markets continued to battle for global LNG supply into the region. The TTF month-ahead contract was seen trading as high as Eur40.40/MWh early in the session, the previous record prior to 2021's rally being Eur35.55/MWh in October 2008, Platts data showed. Europe and Asia are seeking to secure LNG volumes to replenish stock levels ahead of the next winter delivery period.
What's next? With EU gas storage sites currently only 55% full, concerns that stocks will not reach a suitable level ahead of the winter has played a big part in pushing gas prices up to the giddy heights of Eur40/MWh. A key question—and one likely to continue to drive market fundamentals—is how full European storage sites will be by the start of the withdrawal season and whether stocks will suffice to carry Europe through another cold winter. According to Platts Analytics' forecasts, northwest European storages are expected to reach 85% full by the end of October, below the five-year low of 86%. "This winter is going to be very tight," Platts Analytics managing analyst James Huckstepp said....
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