Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Suez Canal: More On The Numbers (and the ships course resembled a phallus)

 If only the canal wasn't so handy for world trade.

Splash 24/7 is estimating the blockage thus far represents $6 billion in trade:

March 25

$6bn and counting: Suez snarl-up stretches into third day
...The International Chamber of Shipping estimates that $3bn worth of cargoes pass through the 152-year-old waterway a day....

That figure has to be low. 

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance:

...Still, the best chance for freeing the ship may not come until Sunday or Monday, when the tide will reach a peak, according to Nick Sloane, the salvage master responsible for refloating the Costa Concordia, the cruise ship that capsized on the coast of Italy in 2012. Sloane works as the senior salvage master for Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Resolve Marine Group....

Now multiply by the Lloyd's List numbers: 

....A rough estimate shows the blockage is costing about $400 million an hour, based on calculations from Lloyd’s List that suggest westbound traffic is worth around $5.1 billion a day and eastbound traffic is approximately $4.5 billion. On Wednesday, 185 vessels were waiting to cross the canal, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg, while Lloyd’s estimates there’s 165.

About 34 container vessels chartered by Maersk and other shipping lines are either stuck in the canal or en route, according to supply-chain tracking company project44. Preliminary reports show 10 crude tankers carrying a total of 13 million barrels could be affected by the disruption, according to Vortexa Senior Freight Analyst Arthur Richier....

Pick a percentage for the losses. 1%? You're at $96 million per day. And they're waiting for the high high-tide? Yikes.

Here's Vortexa on the oil angle:

Energy intelligence firm Vortexa has so far identified ten tankers carrying around 13mn bbl of Middle East crude that could be affected by the blockage of the Suez Canal - caused by a container ship accident in the narrow waterway. More oil flows could be at risk unless the interruption is quickly resolved.

“A short-term disruption of a day or two will not seriously impact oil markets,” said Clay Seigle, managing director at Vortexa in Houston, pointing to ample crude inventories and general weakness in European oil markets caused by new lockdown measures.

The key question is how soon until regular traffic is restored. If it’s delayed, then some refineries could be caught short, especially of high-sulphur “sour crude” from sources like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

“Time is of the essence,” Seigle explained.

Most crude flows from the Mideast Gulf head to eastern destinations, or to western ones by sailing all the way around Africa, and therefore are not directly affected by a Suez disruption....


Finally, Vessel Finder:


Finally, you've probably see the picture of the two salvage guys with their front-end loader. If not, here's an indication of just how big these ships are:

Energy News Bulletin