Thursday, December 3, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: We Don't Need No Stinkin' Natty

The stink is the mixtures of sulfides and mercaptans added to otherwise odorless natural gas.

 Also the futures, down 9% (-0.250) at 2.530. 

First up the estimates going into the report, from FX Empire: 

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Crushed by ‘Exceptionally Comfortable’ Temps Ahead of EIA Data

.... NatGasWeather says, “For today’s EIA weekly storage report, a large range in national survey averages between -10 and -17 Bcf, but with the most notable near -10 Bcf. It was warmer than normal over most of the US besides the Great Basin. Our algorithm predicts a draw of -9 Bcf, lighter than the 5-year average of -41 Bcf, although tricky due to the Thanksgiving Holiday.”

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) says, “A Bloomberg survey of six analysts produced a range from a 26 Bcf withdrawal to a 1 Bcf injection, with a median draw of 19 Bcf. Reuters polled 16 analysts, whose withdrawal estimates were as low as 28 Bcf and injection estimates were as high as 3 Bcf, with a median decrease of 12 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal poll of 12 analysts showed draws ranging from 8-28 Bcf. NGI projected a 15 Bcf pull.”....

The report, from the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending November 27, 2020   |   Released: December 3, 2020 

Working gas in storage was 3,939 Bcf as of Friday, November 27, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 1 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 343 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 290 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,649 Bcf. At 3,939 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. 

And finally, the price action via the CME:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/n00RnBFX/