From Creighton's Heider College of Business, December 1:
November survey highlights:
- The regional Business Conditions Index remained above growth neutral for the sixth straight month.
- Since bottoming out in April, regional manufacturing has gained back roughly 37,000, or 2.7%, of the initial non-farm job losses from COVID-19.
- Approximately 52.9% of supply managers from the November Creighton survey indicated their firm had hired back all COVID-19 furloughed workers.
- The wholesale inflation gauge rose its highest level since June 2018.
- Supply managers economic outlook, or business confidence, plummeted for the month.
- Approximately 45.5% of supply managers reported that their employer had increased the employee health care insurance contribution for 2021.
OMAHA, Neb. (December 1, 2020) – For the first time since April, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, fell, but remained above growth neutral for the month.
Overall index: In April of this year, COVID-19 pushed the overall index to its lowest level in 11 years. Since April, the overall index has climbed above growth neutral 50.0 for six of the past seven months. The November Business Conditions Index, which ranges between 0 and 100, dipped to 69.0 from October’s 70.2.
“Creighton’s monthly survey results have mirrored the national manufacturing survey results indicating that the manufacturing sector has been expanding at a solid pace since sinking to a post-2008 recession low in April. Even so, current output in the regional and U.S. manufacturing sectors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
Employment: The regional employment index remained well above growth neutral for November, but fell to 63.1 from 66.7 in October. Since the onset of COVID-19, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that regional nonfarm employment is down 649,000 jobs, or 4.7%, and regional manufacturing employment is off by 72,000 jobs or 4.9%.
Since bottoming out in April, regional manufacturing has gained back roughly 37,000, or 2.7%, of the initial nonfarm job losses.
Approximately 52.9% of manufacturers from the November Creighton survey indicated that they hired back all COVID-19 furloughed workers, while 29.4% reported that their firms had rehired a portion of the furloughed workers. The remaining 17.7% stated that their firm had never furloughed workers. Approximately 5.9% expect to furlough additional workers....
.....MUCH MORE
This follows on the downturn in Creighton's other data-series, reported out a couple weeks ago:
