From the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending December 11, 2019 | Release date: December 12, 2019
In the News:
Vessel loadings show record levels of U.S. LNG exports in October and November
U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) set two consecutive records in October and November 2019. LNG exports averaged 5.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) with 52 exported cargoes in October and 6.3 Bcf/d with 55 exported cargoes in November, according to EIA estimates based on the shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P. From January through November 2019, U.S. LNG exports averaged 4.8 Bcf/d, 61% higher than in 2018 (3.0 Bcf/d annual average), as the United States became the third-largest LNG exporter in the world.
Growing liquefaction capacity has supported growth in LNG exports. Two new facilities—Cameron LNG and Freeport LNG—placed their first liquefaction units (referred to as trains) in service this year, in May and September, respectively. Corpus Christi LNG commissioned its second train in July. Elba Island started LNG production from the first five of its Moveable Modular Liquefaction System (MMLS) units and is currently loading first export cargo. EIA estimates U.S. LNG nominal liquefaction capacity in operation to be 6.1 Bcf/d baseload (7.5 Bcf/d peak) across six facilities and 15 trains (10 standard-size liquefaction trains and 5 small modular liquefaction units).
Natural gas feedstock deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities have been the fastest growing consumption sector for U.S. natural gas in 2019, increasing by 2.8 Bcf/d between January and November, based on pipeline flow data provided by IHS Markit. Feedstock deliveries exceeded 6 Bcf/d for the first time in July, averaged 7.4 Bcf/d in November, and exceeded 8.3 Bcf/d in the second week of December as Freeport LNG started LNG production from its second train. EIA expects feedstock deliveries to continue to increase as the remaining trains at Freeport, Cameron, and Elba Island are placed in service in 2020, followed by the third train at Corpus Christi in 2021.
From January through November 2019, EIA estimates that capacity utilization of U.S. liquefaction facilities averaged 93% baseload, or 81% peak. Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi had the highest utilization of production capacity among U.S. LNG export facilities, at 105% and 91% baseload capacity, respectively, over the 11-month period. Cheniere Energy, the operator of Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals, filed applications with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requesting authorization to increase operational capacity of Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi based on technical upgrades that have optimized the operational performance of the facilities.
Cameron LNG ramped up baseload production capacity to 77% in November, and Freeport LNG, since commissioning Train 1 in September, ramped up production to 50% in October and November. Because commissioning new liquefaction trains is done gradually over time, utilization of the facilities in the first several months of operations typically remains below 50%.
The latest information on the status of U.S. liquefaction facilities, including expected online dates and capacities, is available in EIA's database of U.S. LNG export facilities.
Overview:
(For the week ending Wednesday, December 11, 2019)
- Natural gas spot price movements were mixed this report week (Wednesday, December 4 to Wednesday, December 11). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $2.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.26/MMBtu yesterday.
- At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the January 2020 contract decreased 16¢, from $2.399/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.243/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging January 2020 through December 2020 futures contracts declined 6¢/MMBtu to $2.274/MMBtu.
- The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 73 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending December 6. Working natural gas stocks total 3,518 Bcf, which is 20% more than the year-ago level and the same as the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
- The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 17¢/MMBtu, averaging $5.60/MMBtu for the week ending December 11. The prices of ethane, propane, isobutane, and butane fell by 7%, 5%, 5%, and 2%, respectively. The price of natural gasoline rose by 3%.
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, December 3, the natural gas rig count increased by 2 rigs to 133. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 5 rigs to 663. The total rig count decreased by 3 rigs, and it now stands at 799.
....MUCH MORE
Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices at major hubs decline with mild temperatures. This report week (Wednesday, December 4 to Wednesday, December 11), the Henry Hub spot price fell 11¢ from a high of $2.37/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.26/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures across the Lower 48 states were generally warmer than normal, with colder temperatures across the Great Plains. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 6¢ from a high of $2.19/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.13/MMBtu yesterday....
...U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. Fourteen LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass; two each from Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Freeport; and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 51 Bcf departed the United States between December 5 and December 11, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg. Two vessels (one at Sabine Pass and one at Cove Point) were loading on Wednesday....Recently:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - December 12, 2019
Front futures (January): 2.285 up 0.042....
....This is consistent with our earlier view that one way or another we would see levitation to allow the commercials to lighten up.
Natural Gas: Why the Commercials May Want to Get Up And Get Out—The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Fizzling
"Chinese firms offer to resell LNG cargoes due to weak demand"
If you back that weakness through all the supply chains you end up with a glut but, see after the jump....
I should quit now.
