Thursday, December 19, 2019

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report December 19, 2019

I don't think the dime uptick ($2.25 to 2.35) from the 12th was enough for the commercials to completely exit their long position that we mentioned last week. So, although we don't have much faith in trading based on the Commitment of Traders reports we will check in to see which direction their positioning is leaning.
First up, the estimates, via FX Empire:
...Traders are looking for the report to show a pull of about 87 Bcf. Reuters is predicting withdrawals of 68 Bcf to 102 Bcf, with a median draw of 92 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence is expecting to see a draw of 86 Bcf....
And the number is (drumroll):
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
for week ending December 13, 2019   |   Released: December 19, 2019
...Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,411 Bcf as of Friday, December 13, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 107 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 618 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 9 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,420 Bcf. At 3,411 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....
Wow, the withdrawal was much larger that the estimates, the futures must be soaring!
Or not. January futures down 0.042 at 2.244.
From the CME:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rHArKX1G/

Here's last week's thinking on why we'd see an up-move:

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - December 12, 2019 
Front futures (January): 2.285 up 0.042.... 
....This is consistent with our earlier view that one way or another we would see levitation to allow the commercials to lighten up.
Natural Gas: Why the Commercials May Want to Get Up And Get Out—The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Fizzling

"Chinese firms offer to resell LNG cargoes due to weak demand" 
If you back that weakness through all the supply chains you end up with a glut but, see after the jump...
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Back later—oops, tomorrow, sorry—with the CoT report, we'll delay the EIA Weekly update 'til tomorrow.