Monday, October 7, 2019

U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Progress Report - October 7, 2019

As noted this morning we are at the point where condition doesn't matter, the focus is on amount harvested.

First up, expectations:
And from the USDA
...
Corn Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States harvested 94% of the 2018 corn acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :               Week ending               :             
                :-----------------------------------------:             
      State     : October 6,  :September 29,: October 6,  :  2014-2018  
                :    2018     :    2019     :    2019     :   Average   
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                        percent                        
                :                                                       
Colorado .......:     19            12            17            13      
Illinois .......:     61             4            13            46      
Indiana ........:     37             8            15            29      
Iowa ...........:     14             2             3            12      
Kansas .........:     57            28            36            54      
Kentucky .......:     69            58            76            68      
Michigan .......:     15             -             4            10      
Minnesota ......:     14             -             1            10      
Missouri .......:     74            26            35            61      
Nebraska .......:     22             8            12            17      
North Carolina .:     87            87            91            86      
North Dakota ...:      8             -             -             6      
Ohio ...........:     20             5            11            17      
Pennsylvania ...:     19            23            36            23      
South Dakota ...:     15             -             2            12      
Tennessee ......:     77            74            88            80      
Texas ..........:     72            72            74            71      
Wisconsin ......:     13             -             1             8      
                :                                                       
18 States ......:     33            11            15            27      
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-  Represents zero.                                               

And:
..
Soybeans Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States harvested 96% of the 2018 soybean acreage]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :               Week ending               :             
                :-----------------------------------------:             
      State     : October 6,  :September 29,: October 6,  :  2014-2018  
                :    2018     :    2019     :    2019     :   Average   
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                        percent                        
                :                                                       
Arkansas .......:     30            25            38            47      
Illinois .......:     49             1            11            40      
Indiana ........:     38             6            14            33      
Iowa ...........:     18             3             5            26      
Kansas .........:     13             2             5            15      
Kentucky .......:     28            19            31            25      
Louisiana ......:     78            68            80            83      
Michigan .......:     15             7             8            23      
Minnesota ......:     36             5             8            43      
Mississippi ....:     59            46            58            69      
Missouri .......:     19             1             6            18      
Nebraska .......:     35             6            14            30      
North Carolina .:     10            14            17            10      
North Dakota ...:     33             4             8            48      
Ohio ...........:     28             6            18            33      
South Dakota ...:     27             1             5            36      
Tennessee ......:     28            27            39            27      
Wisconsin ......:     16             1             3            20      
                :                                                       
18 States ......:     31             7            14            34     
.
aaa

...MUCH MORE (text; PDF)

And the reason they are harvesting as fast as possible, the GFS model temperature anomaly map for October 12:

https://i2.wp.com/electroverse.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/NA-OCT-COLD-2.jpg?w=649&ssl=1

Quite a bit below average across the entire mid-section of the country.
Looking a bit further out there is a lot of money riding on that big blue blob:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_20191006.NAsfcT.gif

Earlier:
Ag Futures: Ahead of Today's Crop Progress Report: Racing the Weather