Thursday, October 31, 2019

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: Time for a Short

The injection was 89 Bcf, putting the amount in storage at 3,695 Bcf,  up 17.8% over last year and 1.4% higher than the 5-year average. Here's the report.    

The expectations were all over the place:
...Fundamentally, a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts showed a median build of 85 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 18 market participants had a range from 66 Bcf to 94 Bcf, with a median of 85 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) projected a 93 Bcf injection.
Adjustments are being made due to the forecasts, I am now seeing some predictions of 47 Bcf. Last year, the EIA reported a 49 Bcf injection, while the five-year average build stands at 65 Bcf.
Given the wide range of injections, the EIA report is likely to be the source of heightened volatility today.
FX Empire
Here's the chart, that gap looks tempting:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZTFN7AHQ/

The market is trading off the cold snap and the cold snap is not going to last. Front (December) futures 2.686  -0.005 after jumping as high as 2.738.