Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Why Chairman Xi May Be At Risk From China's Communist Party

Following on October 20's What's This? "Xi Jinping's daughter has returned to US to resume studies at Harvard, Chinese leader may have agreed to let Xi Mingzhe leave China to keep her out of danger".

Disclaimer up front, the overthrow of Xi Jinping is not imminent. He is too powerful for it to happen tomorrow. First up, the South China Morning Post, January 27, 2017:

How Xi Jinping has taken on multiple roles ... and amassed unrivalled power in China
President now has 12 posts that give him control and oversight over most areas of government, the economy and the military...
....MORE 

Continuing from the SCMP, the four most important roles:
Here is a list of the titles he has taken since assuming office in 2012.
1. General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
Xi was granted this title in November 2012, making him the head of the governing Communist Party with nearly 90 million members. Xi is commonly addressed in China by this title.
Rather than acting as first among equals, Xi has made himself a strongman within the party, according to analysts....
2. Chairman of the Central Military Commission
Xi took this role at the same time he assumed the party chief position in late 2012. It was viewed at the time as evidence that Xi would be more powerful than his predecessor, Hu Jintao. Hu became military commission chairman position two years after he was appointed party chief....
6. Leader of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms
After Xi created this group at the end of 2013, it became clear he would use it to cement his direct control over key issues.
10. Leader of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs
This leading group has been in place since at least 1992. Xi heads it and his right-hand man, Liu He, is in charge of the day-to-day operations of the group....
As The National Interest put it in a September 30, 2019 piece:
China's Communist Party Has Little To Celebrate
...Xi’s view—an echo of Mao’s—is that the Communist Party must have absolute control of society and that he have absolute control over the Party....
However, should economic concerns drive social unrest there are factions who would be available to take advantage of developments. Whether they would risk it without near-guaranteed success is an open question.
Skipping back to 2017:

From the South China Morning Post, April 6, 2017:
Xi all powerful? What Trump needs to know about Chinese politics
...China may have a one-party system, but claims of President Xi Jinping’s rise to absolute power ignore the influence of the tuanpai
 
In Beijing’s system, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds a monopoly on power. But the party leadership is not a monolithic group. CCP leaders span a range of political associations, socioeconomic backgrounds, professional credentials, geographic associations and policy preferences. Two broad camps in the leadership vigorously vie for influence and control in post-Deng China: the “elitist coalition”, with its core faction of princelings (leaders who come from veteran revolutionary families), and the “populist coalition”, which primarily consists of so-called tuanpai (leaders who advanced their careers through the Chinese Communist Youth League)....
....MUCH MORE