From the Macro Polo think tank of the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago, September 10:
China’s recipe for tech leadership has long missed a main ingredient: chips. It isn’t for lack of trying. Since the launch of the “531 Development Plan” in 1986 to the formation of the $50 billion integrated circuits fund in 2014, considerable state resources have been poured into China’s semiconductor aspirations.
But there has been little to show for it. China today still buys 90% of its chips each year (~$200 billion) from foreign companies. To a large degree, China has lost the battle on existing commodity chips, such as memory chips and mobile processors, as American and South Korean firms hold a strong grip across virtually the entire production chain. As Chair of the China Computer Federation has put it, “In the realm of traditional chips, the game is over.” Indeed, Chinese companies are nowhere to be seen among top global chipmakers (see Figure 1).
But the Fourth Industrial Revolution—driven in large part by artificial intelligence (AI) technologies—has given a second life to China’s fledgling semiconductor industry. If AI’s application across industries will define the future, then chips with AI capabilities will be in high demand.
China’s bet on AI chips makes both technological and market sense, as it is viewed as a clean slate where Chinese companies have a shot at “overtaking competitors around the bend” (弯道超车). Traditional chips have powered everything from smartphones and laptops to televisions, but are starting to see their growth plateau as the consumer electronics market becomes saturated. AI chips, while making up just 1% of global semiconductor sales, are poised to experience robust growth over the next decade (see Figure 2)........MUCH MORE
Macro Polo also has a series called "ChinAI: Building and Stumbling Blocks For China’s AI Ambitions" that paints the picture in broad brushstrokes (no trade secrets).
On China's failure to launch, semiconductor-wise
August 28
Chips: How China Is Still Paying the Price For Squandering Its Chance To Build a Home-grown Semiconductor Industry
Should China ever invade Taiwan the TSMC fabs would be quite a prize.
We've looked at this oddity a few times, some links below....
Also at the SCMP, Aug. 28:
Are China’s investments in semiconductors all for naught? US expert says China is at a crossroads
Previously:
July 3
China to Narrow Chip Gap With Taiwan Invasion
Did I say invade? I meant trade.June 14
I must have been thinking of China's Defense Minister last month saying "China must be and will be reunited".
With the Taiwanese elections coming up it's probably as good a time as any for Beijing to make some sort of move. Probably not invasion though. China will want to test its military somewhere, our guess is Vietnam, before tackling Taiwan. So probably some sort of fifth column action, cyber, electrical grid etc. And the people to do it are already on the island, I mean if the Chinese could get one of their spies into Dianne Feinstein's office while she was Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee (2009 - 2015), the guy was her San Francisco office manager, not, as reported, the chauffeur, if they could do that there is no doubt they have assets in Teipei.
So where was I?
"China chip industry insiders voice caution on catch-up efforts"
May 1
Beijing’s big chip push goes into hyperdrive
March 28
China's AI Dream: The Plan and the Players
January 2018
"Can Chinese AI Chip Makers Compete with Nvidia?" (NVDA)
January 2018
"China wants to make the chips that will add AI to any gadget"
From MIT's Technology Review, Jan. 24: The AI boom offers Chinese chipmakers a chance to catch up after years of lagging behind....
I'm still ashamed about my reaction to the Paulson Institute's choice of names for the think tank:
November 2018
In Xi We Trust: Inwardly Directed Chinese Propaganda (now with more elephants)
Other than that, the analysis itself seems pretty solid....*****
...Here's the problem. Climateer Investing, March 11, 2016:
I came up with Macro Polo. For a story about elephant polo!
So I looked at the Macro Polo blog. The earliest post is dated June 26, 2017. Aha!!
And I looked at the think tank's dates of publication for their various papers.
And.....2014. Two years prior to the Climateer post.
Not even simultaneous discovery/invention. And the Macro Polo think tank is part of the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago and now I fear I may have unconsciously internalized the play on words and then used it without attribution thinking it was my own.
I will leave wearying reader with the story of one of the greatest polo matches of all time as I hang my head and contemplate the (possible, who knows at this point) shame I have brought upon my ancestors....
