News You Can Use: Forecasting Edition

Following up on our mention of the "40% chance approach to never being wrong" yesterday, here's another trick o' the trade.
Via Pavel Atanasov's Twitter feed:

When forecasters are scored based on average error, they do well long-run by predicting the common outcomes: economic growth rather than recession, status quo rather than change. If you want better hit rates on recession & change, you need asymmetric scoring rules. https://t.co/qPdya5jK4u

— Pavel Atanasov (@PavelDAtanasov) December 16, 2018

If interested we have a few hundred posts on forecasting. Here's a Google site search:

site:climateerinvest.blogspot.com forecasting