Richard Watson, Futurist-in-Residence at the Tech Foresight Practice at Imperial College London
I stumbled upon a Wikipedia page recently about disruptive technologies. While the page provided a good summary of what’s coming next, it failed to excite me for a number of reasons. First, although the technologies were grouped by industry or sector, which was useful, there was no chronology or ranking of potential force. I thought Imperial’s Tech Foresight team could do better, so here, for your delectation and delight, is a table of 100 emerging technologies ranked by both time and disruptive potential put together by Anna Cupani and I, with the input and feedback of many academics and brilliantly brought to life by Lawrence Whiteley at Wond.
The technologies are divided into four groups. Horizon one technologies (green bottom left on the table) are technologies that are happening right now. If they are appropriate to your business, you should be integrating and executing these technologies right now.
Horizon two technologies (yellow) are probable near future technologies (10-20 years hence). Experiment and discuss if appropriate.
Horizon three technologies (red) are technologies that are likely to emerge in the more distant future (20 years plus). Keep an eye on developments in these areas and explore if appropriate.
The outer edge of the table (grey) contains what we’ve termed Ghost Technologies. This is fringe thinking with some examples bordering on lunacy. However, while each example is highly improbable none, or very few, are actually impossible. There was some debate as to whether to include this section on the basis that many of these ‘technologies’ are pseudo-science, but if the history of science & technology tells us anything it’s surely that what starts off as impossible or implausible often ends up being obvious or inevitable.
Finally, on the far right of the table are examples of companies active in each of the technology areas. We are grateful to Gaby Lee for her help and extensive search on the internet. We excluded Imperial College here because it felt like we might be blowing our own trumpet a little too much. Also, because a planned future version is proposed that will highlight where Imperial is active.
So, here’s a billion-dollar question.
Assuming this table is roughly correct, how might you spot the companies or organisations that will succeed commercially? Which companies might you invest in or acquire? To my mind, this is roughly the same as asking what are the rules for innovation or how might you make your company more innovative and better positioned to succeed in a competitive and volatile environment?
...MUCH MORE
