Monday, April 23, 2018

Goldman Sachs on Asteroid Mining: As If Luxembourg Wasn't Insufferable Already

Luxembourg, with their #3 in the world GDP per capita (PPP) and their Jean-Claude Juncker and...
Insufferable. It's like Bono and Elevation Partners. Besides being Bono, they ran $90 mil. to $1.5 billion in Facebook.
Billion with a 'B'. As in Bono.

Here's Goldman:
Long dominated by government agencies, space is now in play for private companies and venture capital firms, which see big potential in areas like launch, communications and exploration. Noah Poponak, senior Aerospace and Defense equity research analyst for Goldman Sachs Research, says this investment interest has helped reduce launch costs and spur innovation across related industries, opening up a new chapter in the history of the space economy....MORE
It's a 24 minute podcast, something one could listen to while in transit but did anyone bother to tell me about it?
No. That's why we're getting to it a year late, despite my avowed interest in becoming the world's first trillionaire.
And ignoring that Alchemist's Fallacy thing and all.

Here's ZeroHdge from April 19th (yes, they're a year late as well but how does that help moi?): 

The World's First Trillionaire Will Be A Space Miner
Famous astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson and Goldman Sachs share a common belief: The next trillion-dollar industry will be in the mining sector - in outer space.  
As Neil deGrasse Tyson puts it:
"The first trillionaire there will ever be is the person who exploits the natural resources on asteroids. There's this vast universe of limitless energy and limitless resources. I look at wars fought over access to resources. That could be a thing of the past, once space becomes our backyard."
While the renowned astrophysicist sees the potential for peace, Goldman Sachs sees the radical arrival of a trillion-dollar mining industry in the 21st Century.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/58e61ca6dd0895545c8b4a52-960-879.png?itok=MuUhuDDJ
It may sound like a long-term gamble, but Goldman has been eyeing improvements in technology and the trends toward lowers costs for manufacturing spacecraft. 

A year ago, Goldman noted in a 98-page report:
"While the psychological barrier to mining asteroids is high, the actual financial and technological barriers are far lower. Prospecting probes can likely be built for tens of millions of dollars each and Caltech has suggested an asteroid-grabbing spacecraft could cost $2.6bn.”
So, science fiction is becoming the narrative of reality, and radical opinions are starting to seem rather sober.

All the more because the whole idea is being given a major boost in Luxembourg of all places.
Asteroid mining is being led by private sector interests that are dead set on making money in outer space.

Two of the leading companies formed with this in mind are California-based Deep Space Industries and Washington-based Planetary Resources. Both have been operating for several years, and both plan on profiting from asteroid mining.

But the tiny European country of Luxembourg is hoping to become the hub of cosmic mining—a tax haven banking center-turned-asteroid-exploiter. So it’s no mystery why Deep Space Industries, for instance, has offices both in Luxembourg as well and a partnership with the government of Luxembourg....MORE
We never got invited into the deal.
And we were so nice to Luxembourg. February 2016, Luxembourg’s Asteroid Mining Plan:
"One small step for a man, one giant leap for a duchy..."
Followed by:
Luxembourg Invests €25 million in Asteroid Mining 
Luxembourg’s Bid to Become the Silicon Valley of Space Mining
Luxembourg's New Space Mining Law Is Basically "Finders, Keepers"

A compilation image of mining equipment in space
Artist's depiction, not actual asteroid mining

And nothing.
You know what really burns?
When people would try to shame them for their wee size, who defended them? I'll tell you who:

Dammit! Luxembourg Is Not A Microstate!
From Brilliant Maps:

The map above shows how big Luxembourg is compared to Singapore, Andorra, Malta, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Monaco, and the Vatican....
I thought we were hedged with their fellow tax haven but noooo:
Swiss space agency boss is kidnapped by hitmen who beat him senseless then tried to burn him alive
Swiss Space Systems founder accused of ‘staging’ own attack
Swiss Space Systems: Just "Fugget About It!"
Swiss Space Systems Declares Bankruptcy-Parabolic Arc
So, about that Alchemist's fallacy:
2015's  "It is Now Legal to Own an Asteroid in the U.S."

You know the first things they want to mine are those things with the highest price per ounce back on earth which ex-truffles and saffron probably means the so-called precious metals.
However, with all that gold and platinum coming back, you might want to bone up on Another Post On Glass, This Time With "The Alchemist's Fallacy" (And Professor Nordhaus).

The miners will probably also keep an eye peeled for Californium-252 at $27 million per gram, but finding any is a bit of a long shot, 8 grams known to date....
And
Platinum Extends 6 1/2-Year Lows as Asteroid With $5.4 Trillion Worth of the Stuff Whizzes Past Earth
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj57AUOlAZPRXes2UosfyYcrHEk22JPNTva46j_bVztaEWsRZ37R1BoguwAMabxOH-DiQKsmGWcnRbyHFT2wKh-wkgd1IrgCAElBLL87j5XJMfj5bxYCWBlp3DTEL1NDcIpkCR_6mBaM6c/s1600/dancing+bears.jpg
See also:
"The Price of Gold in the Year 2160"
And "We Are About to Start Mining Hydrothermal Vents on the Ocean Floor" (now with added alchemist's fallacy"

The thing is, such an enormous increase in supply would crash the market, something the ancient alchemists didn't mention when they were pitching their lead-into-gold private placements to their version of accredited investors, the princely class, back in the day.

It is for this reason that the astro-miners have changed their approach and are now talking about looking for oxygen, water, nitrogen and other elements that can be used to take us farther into the universe.
Presumably to sell to Elon Musk to speed him on his way. 

I first heard the concept from Yale's Professor Nordhaus in 2005's "Schumpeterian Profits and the Alchemist Fallacy"
Here's some exposition from FT Magazine in 2015: "Another Post On Glass, This Time With "The Alchemist's Fallacy" (And Professor Nordhaus)".

And another thing.
When did Neil deGrasse Tyson start talking like an old man with the "In my day..." stuff, and all?