Tuesday, June 9, 2015

"Northern Hemisphere hurricane season off to record start, fueled by El Niño"

According to Ryan Maue at WeatherBELL, Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy is running at 364% of average for this date, 155.12 vs. average 42. Worldwide at 155% of average
From the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:
Hurricane activity is expected to be below-average this year in the Atlantic Ocean, but that “quiet” forecast does not translate for other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, where tropical cyclones have been smashing records since late March. North of the equator, typhoon and hurricane season has gotten off to a tenacious start, fueled by a strengthening El Niño in the central Pacific.

To determine how active a hurricane season has been so far, scientists use a tool called accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) — a measure of wind speed over time in each individual storm, which is then added across all storms. This measurement is a rudimentary way to calculate the activity of any given season.

According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, this measurement of hurricane activity has surged to a new record high in 2015. As of Sunday, the ACE for the Northern Hemisphere was an astonishing 152, while the previous high for the year-to-date was 102.

Not only has the Northern Hemisphere blown away the old record, but it’s done it three weeks prior to the old record of 152, which was on June 28, 2004. In other words, this record is coming three weeks ahead of schedule. The normal ACE at this point in the season is just 41.

The majority of the record-breaking activity is due to a blockbuster West Pacific typhoon season so far this year. Three out of the four typhoons that have formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean have also strengthened into super typhoons — basically the equivalent of category 5 hurricanes....MORE