Thursday, June 4, 2015

"UN flags grain price falls as it ups world harvest forecast"

When is science not science? When it's done by Paul -Population Bomb- Ehrlich.
"In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
The guy would be an embarrassment a third rate college much less to Stanford of all places.
"I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." (1969)

"Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion." (1976)
That's not to say there aren't potential problems but when you set yourself up in the 'public intellectual' space you should try a little humility to season your overbearing wrongheadedness.
Or at least learn the junior analyst rule of prognostication: If you are going to forecast a price, don't, for God's sake, include a date.

So there, I probably just committed the sin of hubris myself, Ahem...
Corn: 358-6; wheat 510-6.

From Agrimoney:
The United Nations lifted its forecast for world cereals production as it revealed that food prices had fallen to their lowest in nearly six years – encouraged by a stand-off by grain buyers in anticipation of strong harvests.

The UN food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, lifted its forecast for world output of cereals, including rice as well the likes of corn and wheat, in 2015-16 by 14.9m tonnes to 2.52bn tonnes.

The upgrade took the estimate the world grains harvest to within 26m tonnes of last year's record production, and meant that world inventories will fall over the season by roughly half the pace previously expected, by 12.2m to 634.3m tonnes.
The world cereals stocks-to-use ratio, a key measure of crop availability, and therefore of pricing potential, was seen at 24.7%, down 0.8 points on the 2014-15 number, but "well above the low of 18.5% registered in 2007-08", when grain prices soared.
Subdued trade prospects
Indeed, a drop in grain values led a decline in world food prices fell last month of 1.4% to their lowest since September 2009, the FAO said. Food prices are now down 22% from a high reached in March last year.
Grain prices dropped by 3.8% last month, weighed by "ample stocks combined with generally favourable crop outlooks for this year", which had spurred many buyers to delay orders....MORE
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."  
-Richard P. Feynman, Nobel Laureate-Physics, 1965

Of course Feynman hung his hat at CalTech.