Monday, June 6, 2011

Bloomberg Analyst Survey: "Wheat Rallying 20% as Parched Fields Wilt From China to Kansas"

Chicago wheat is trading at $7.62, down 11 3/4 cents.
Be careful on this one, see stories below the jump.
From Bloomberg:
The worst droughts in decades are wilting wheat fields from China to the U.S. to the U.K., overwhelming Russia’s return to grain markets and driving prices to the highest levels since 2008.

Parts of China, the biggest grower, had the least rain in a century, some European regions are the driest in 50 years and almost half the winter-wheat crop in the U.S., the largest exporter, is rated poor or worse. Inventory is dropping 8.8 percent, the most in five years, Rabobank International says. Prices will advance 20 percent to as high as $9.25 a bushel by Dec. 31, a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts and traders shows.
Wheat as much as doubled in the past year as crops failed, spurring Ukraine and Russia to curb shipments and increasing the U.S. share of global sales by the most since 2004. Russia ending its export ban on July 1 and Ukraine lifting quotas may not be enough as crops wither elsewhere, fuelling gains in food prices which the United Nations says are already near a record.
“In 32 years, I’ve never seen so many problems in so many places,” said Dan Basse, the president of AgResource Co., a farm researcher in Chicago. “We’re concerned about the world story now,” said Basse, who has been studying agricultural markets since 1979 and expects prices as high as $10 this year....MORE
The drought in China is serious but may not have the effects on wheat that the pros are looking for. First some orientation:

Agricultural map of China
China Ag Regions and Crops

From CNtv (May 25):
Bumper harvest for Shandong wheat farmers
Much of China's Yangtze River region is currently battling the worst drought conditions in 50 years. But it's not all bad news in the agricultural sector. Farmers in Shandong Province, one of the country's major wheat-producing areas, are expecting higher wheat output this summer.

Lingxian County, in the eastern part of Shandong Province, suffered from heavy drought this spring.
But due to the high soil moisture level and effective measures adopted by the local government, the drought did not cause much of a negative impact to wheat production in the region....MORE 
From Xinhua (June 5):
Persistent rain expected to ease drought in central, south China
Rain in central and south China over the next three days is expected to drench drought-hit regions, according to the country's weather forecast department.

At least light to moderate rains would saturate most of the regions to the south of the Yangtze River by early Sunday morning, said the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

The CMA also said that heavy rains would hit the provinces of Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, as well as Shanghai....MORE
Which was followed by:
Rain continues to drench drought-hit south China