Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Approaching Anniversary: Jim Cramer Makes One of the Worst Market Calls Ever (DIA; SPY; WB)

Right up there with:
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
-Prof Irving Fisher, Sept. 4, 1929
(the DJIA had peaked the day before at 381, it would bottom at 41 in 1932),
or Fisher's more famous locution
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." on Oct. 21, 1929.
Black Thursday came three days later.

At the time he was one of the most respected economists in the world.

Here's a post from July 30, 2008:
Jim Cramer: "Yes, the Market Has Bottomed"
I respectfully disagree but at least he's humble and lovable.
From CNBC:
If you thought you heard Cramer call a bottom during Tuesday’s Mad Money, you were right.“It smells to me like something, in fact many things,” he said, “have at last changed for the better.”
I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now,” Cramer continued, “declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15. and I think anyone out there who’s waiting for that low to be breached is in for a big disappointment and [they’re] missing a great deal of upside.”
“Stop waiting,” he said, and “buy the next dip because I think it might be the last big one.”
Cramer pointed to five specific clues that proved to him that the market was about to turn up....
...“My bottom call isn’t gutsy,” Cramer said. “I think it’s just a smart call that all the evidence points toward.”“Bye, bye bear market,” he said. “Say hello to the bull and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”>>>MORE
DJIA closes at 11,583.69 on it's way to 6,547.05.
7 1/2 months later.

I know a lot of folks would argue that Cramer's worst call was Bear Stearns:
Bear Stearns: Jim Cramer Defends His Position, Is Still Hated (BSC)
From Gawker:
"Mad Money" host and bug-eyed madman Jim Cramer went on CNBC today to clarify his statements from last week about Bear Stearns, when he urged people not to move their money out of the firm. As we pointed out earlier in his defense, he was not referring to the company's stock, and his advice was actually perfectly sound....
Go to Gawker for the video.
HT: 1440 Wall Street.
See also: "How To Think About Jim Cramer’s Insane Confidence--Even For A Crazy Person--In Bear Stearns"

While other people might remember his September 15, 2008 buy rec on Wachovia:
Jim Cramer Admits: "I Screwed Up" In Recommending Wachovia Stock Two Weeks Ago Because I Liked The CEO

By Sunday the 28th the Comptroller of the Currency was about to seize the bank unless it was merged or acquired by the start of business on Monday.

On a more positive note, Jim did beat a monkey in a stock picking contest.