Friday, March 27, 2009

La Nina Update March 26, 2009

From AccuWeather:

...Based on current information, the ENSO is weakening toward the borderline of neutral.

Here is the latest ENSO plume forecast from several different models. As you can see, a clear majority of the forecast models continue to trend the ENSO toward neutral by the summer. The notable exception is the NASA GMAO model which is predicting a strong El Nino (unusual warming of the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) by the end of the summer. Clearly, this model is the outlier and probably should be thrown out on this particular run....MORE, including probabiistic forecast

We'll follow up next week with the implications for hurricane development and landfalls, crop yields and June weddings.